Carlisle United v Crewe Alex 24/25 Preview - Misleading

Sometimes, getting shiny new American owners works well. See Wrexham, love them or loathe them. However, sometimes it hasn't led to instant glory. See Gillingham's recent struggles and, in a more serious example, Carlisle. Now, there is no doubt the Piatak family mean well up there. Clearing the clubs historical debt, improving the stadium and starting to build a new training ground have all been huge steps forward for the Cumbrians.

But their on field decisions have left a lot to be desired. The reluctance to sack Paul Simpson, a poor summer of recruitment and the delay in appointing Mike Williamson has left them rock bottom of L2 and fighting for their EFL lives. The whole club will need a monumental January to get out of danger. But before that, there are league games to get results from and despite their lowly position, there are signs that the tide might be turning at Burton Park. Here is my preview of the Alex's trip north:

Early Start

I suppose we should be grateful this game is on a Saturday. This game was supposed to take place next Tuesday, but as both sides were knocked out of the FA Cup, it's taking place when most of the rest of L2 are in 2nd Round action. However, whilst it saves people the hassle of having to book time off work to make it on a Tuesday night, the Sky TV rights deal means it has to go at 12:30, as the 3pm slot would be covered by the blackout rules.

So, for Alex fans, that'll mean an early get up to complete the 147 mile journey. Of course, the trade off is the game will finish earlier and it'll allow fans to get home at a sensible time. But how the players adjust to an overnight stay and earlier start will be interesting to see.

Misleading

It's easy to look at Carlisle's lowly position and think this will be a cakewalk. But I'm sure Lee Bell is instilling in his players just how much of a battle this will be. Especially given Cumbrians shown signs of life lately. They are unbeaten in their last 3 with 3 draws, the last being a well earned point at home to 4th place Doncaster last week.

Their underlying numbers also suggest they aren't as bad as their table position makes them look. They are 11th in xG for, 16th in xG against and 10th in the xG table. They are 4th in average possession and 4th in accurate passes per game. They clearly need January to clear out the deadwood and bring in some reinforcements, but they aren't a team of no hopers. If the Alex go into this one expecting an easy ride, they will get humbled very quickly.

Doctor Crewe

The Alex have a reputation of ending teams bad runs. Well, you won't find a team more in need of a pick-me-up result than Carlisle. Their run in 2024 in the league reads: 7-5-27, with just 2 wins at home in that spell. But as mentioned above, they feel like a team that isn't far off turning the corner. Would a 1-0 home win be beyond the realms of possibility in this one? I hope not. Let's hope the Alex can bely their reputation as a team that can kickstart your season.

Favourable Run

This game kicks off a mostly kind looking run of away games for the Alex. Between now and early February, they will play the sides currently sat in 24th, 8th(with 5 home losses), 14th, 6th, 22nd, 23rd and 17th on the road. Ok, there are a couple of tricky ones sprinkled in there and there are no easy games at this level, but these games could allow them, if they work for it, to wrack up points on the road.

Fatigue?

I pose this as a question rather than a statement of fact, but will the fact that the Alex have had 53 hours less rest than Carlisle be a factor? Carlisle finished their game at 5pm last Saturday, whilst the Alex wrapped up their fixture with Port Vale at 10pm on Monday. Then add in this being an early kick off and we could be seeing some tired legs in the latter stages of this one. This might be a time where Bell has to use his subs effectively and hope the Alex's improved depth makes the difference.

Ref Watch

Elliot Bell

Would you believe it, the Alex are getting ANOTHER rookie ref? Colour me shocked. To be fair, he's done 9 EFL games so far, so he's not a total newbie. But he's not far off either.

2024/25 Record: 17 Games(3 League One, 4 League Two, 1 FA Cup, 5 EFL Trophy, 4 National League), 56 yellows, 1 red

Last Game: Bolton Wanderers 2-1 Fleetwood Town, Tuesday 12th November 2024, EFL Trophy, 3 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: N/A

Injuries/Absences

Carlisle United

Archie Davies, Charlie Wyke, Terell Thomas and Ethan Robson are all out for the Cumbrians. There are also doubts over Harrison Biggins, Jordan Jones and Taylor Charters as well, although the former 2 look set to be fit for the bench. Ben Barclay is back from a 1 game suspension, but Jon Mellish replaces him on the sidelines after picking up his 5th yellow card last week.

Crewe Alex

Chris Long sits out the 2nd of his 3 game ban and he's joined by Ryan Cooney, who picked up his 5th yellow card on Monday and now serves a 1 match suspension. There was thankfully good news on Omar Bogle, who avoided any serious injury at Port Vale and should be fit to feature tomorrow.

Team

The Alex will be forced into a reshuffle in various positions. Firstly, what does Bell do at RWB? Does he bring Billington in after not featuring in the previous 3 league games and not even being in the squad in 2 of them? For me, James Connolly goes out there. I know, I know, his struggles on the ball make it a tough sell. But at least he's match fit, unlike other options like Billington or Breckin. Knight-Lebel then comes in at RCB.

In midfield I would be tempted to see if you can get 60 minutes out of Powell and give him a run out to see how he looks, although I get the risk involved in that. So for that reason I'm starting the same 3 as Monday.

Upfront, I'm starting Lankester alongside Tracey. Their partnership looks to have legs and I'd like to see how they get on together for a longer period. Bogle, who needs protecting, would be a real asset off the bench and it means they don't have to risk him developing a bigger problem.

On the bench, I'm bringing in Charlie Finney to give them a LWB option rather than Billington. Finney joins Booth, Lunt, Breckin, Powell, Bogle and Thibaut in filling out the subs.

Score Prediction

It's strange, I'm both confident of a win and not in equal measure. After a run of having to raise their game to play the top teams, they now face the bottom team and that banana skin concerns me. But then I could point to the 8 game unbeaten run, list of solid results and be upbeat. I can't not predict them to win really, so I'll say it'll be a narrow victory.

Carlisle United 1-2 Crewe Alexandra