Colchester United v Crewe Alex 23/24 Preview - End of the Line?

Phew, here we are then. We've finally reached the end of the season. In the past 3 seasons, things have been wrapped up by this point for Crewe Alex. In 20-21, they were comfortably in mid-table in L1. In 21-22, they were long since relegated. Last season, they again were safely in mid-table in L2. In fact, you have to go back to 2014-15 for the last time a game 46 had anything riding on it. So, here is my game 46 preview of the 23-24 season. Let's see if it's my final one of the season or not.

Exhausted

Colchester have been through a gruelling schedule in the last few weeks. This will be their 8th game in April, compared to the Alex's 6. They haven't had a full weeks rest since mid-March. They have to be exhausted at this point and even though safety isn't confirmed for them, they might find their recent energy levels hard to replicate.

Regardless of that, the Alex are coming off 2 weeks where they had no mid-week games, so they have been be fresher towards the back end of the game. That hopefully will play into their favour should they find themselves behind late in the game. Of course, let's pray it doesn't come to that.

Depleted

Another issue for them(as it is with the Alex) is they will be missing players. In the last few weeks, they've had Samson Tovide and Tom Dallison both sent off, ruling them out. They've also been seemingly reluctant to use their bench, using just 2 subs in each of the last 2 games. It suggests that Danny Cowley doesn't fancy using certain players, which could also play into the Alex's hands if the home side run out of gas and have little on the bench to change things.

Away Form

Whilst their home form has been a bit of a disaster lately, the Alex have remained pretty strong on the road even during their struggles. They have gone unbeaten in their last 3 away games, keeping clean sheets in each of them as well. They haven't lost to a bottom half side since December. It would cap off a really nice away season if they could find a way to not only pick up a win, but manage another clean sheet in the process. Or a 0-0 draw, that would be fine also.

1 point

The Alex know exactly what they need to do. They need 1 point. Just 1. They then don't need to worry about what Barrow or Crawley are doing. They have the ability to get it done. Colchester are where they are for a reason. And however bad the Alex have been in the last 11 games, they are where they are for a reason also.

There is no reason to not go there and get what they need. If they blow this glorious opportunity, then this season will go down as an failure, forget what the expectations were back in August. To blow the top 7 from where they were at the end of February will make this a failure. However, make the POs and even the poor end of the season will largely get forgotten. Time for them to stand up and be counted.

Go for the Win!

That being said though, I don't want to see them going into this aiming solely for a point. They should be trying to win and give themselves every bit of confidence going into the play-offs. Not only that, but the moment they settle for a draw is the moment they open the door for Colchester to potentially nab a late winner themselves if it's tied late on.

Now, I don't mean that if the game is 1-1 in the final 10 minutes, they should chuck on every attacker, push forward in numbers and leave themselves vulnerable at the back. But at the same time, I don't want to see them do the opposite, sit deep, bring on defenders and try to protect the point etc. If they lose by trying to win, I can forgive that. If they lose by trying to draw, that will be inexcusable.

I also don't want events elsewhere to affect them. They could come in at HT with Barrow and Crawley both losing 3-0 and it shouldn't stop them from trying for 3 points. Play to win. Always.

Elsewhere

I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge the teams around them and what could still happen on the final day. In the unlikely event they better Doncaster's result, they finish 5th. I won't try to go through all the permutations of finishing 6th, given all the variances with Barrow and Crawley. That feels the most plausible though.

It feels unlikely they finish 7th, given that would take them losing and one of Crawley or Barrow winning, but I suppose a scenario where Crawley beat Grimsby and Barrow can only draw with Mansfield is possible.

Finishing outside the play-offs is still the fear. Should Crawley and Barrow both win and the Alex lose, they finish 8th. Now, how likely that is given they are both in shaky form and Barrow especially have a tough game against Barrow.

There are so many different outcomes though for who makes the play-offs, with even Bradford having a shot, and a realistic one at that. It's going to be an incredible final day, that's for sure.

Ref Watch

Lewis Smith

Smith was the referee who took charge of the Alex's game at Wimbledon back in September. He also, funnily enough, took charge of 3 games in the Japanese J1 last month, an interesting work placement for the rookie ref. He's done 8 different competitions and taken charge of games with clubs from the top 5 tiers of English football. That must be something of a record.

2023/24 Stats: 46 games(3 Japanese J1 League, 2 Premier League, 8 Championship, 9 League One, 14 League Two, 3 League Cup, 3 FL Trophy, 4 FA Cup)

Last Game: Sutton United 2-2 Crawley Town, League Two, 20th April 2024

Crewe Alex Record: 0-2-0, 4 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Colchester

As mentioned above, Samson Tovide and Tom Dallison are suspended for the Us. Zac Mitchell, Manny Egbo, Ali Smith and Harry Anderson also look like doubts, having missed their last few games.

Crewe Alex

Lewis Leigh serves the 3rd match of his 4 game suspension, but Ryan Cooney is surprisingly available after his red card was overturned. Elsewhere, it was good news on CBR, who Ryan Dicker confirmed would be in the squad. How much of a part he'll be able to play will be interesting.

It was less positive on Conor Thomas(shock horror), who went from "on track" a week ago to now "50-50" yesterday. Ed Turns still seems a way off, as are the 2 keepers and the usual trio of Powell, Offord and Lunt.

Team

Cooney's availability changes my team selection. I had put Finney at LB and Adebisi at RB, but now Cooney starts and Adebisi stays on his natural side.

I'm not going with the 5 at the back, as I think it limits them too much in their attacking game, which is struggling. They need to focus on getting that right in this game, especially if they want to do anything in the play-offs. So for that reason, I'm going with the 4-3-3.

Williams loses his place and Kirk and Tracey are recalled to start either side of Nevitt upfront. The same midfield 3 as against Wrexham start, which isn't ideal, but given half their injured players are midfielders, I'm not sure what else you can do.

Score Prediction

I'm hoping...well, I don't know what I'm hoping. I suppose I'm hoping for another solid away performance, which they've needed of late to bail them out of horrendous home displays. Aside from a couple of stinkers at Donny and MK Dons, 2 promotion chasing teams, they've looked good on the road as mentioned, especially against the poorer teams. So I'm hoping that trend continues in this game. They need a point and I think they get it. Just.

Colchester United 1-1 Crewe Alexandra