Crewe Alex 2024-25 Season Preview Part 2 – Overall Thoughts and Predictions

As I like to do with my Alex season preview, I break it down into 2 parts. In part 1, I discussed each individual player and then looked at the positional breakdowns. Now, I'm going to give some overall thoughts on the squad and then finish off with some predictions. So, here are some general observations:

Injury Records

The Alex have lost a number of durable players from last seasons squad. Luke Offord, Elliott Nevitt and Rio Adebisi have all moved on. In their place, they've signed players who don't have the best of track records in starting games. Kane Hemmings hasn't started more than 30 games since 2019 and at 32, it's hard to see him doing so again.

Omar Bogle has done it once since 2017. Max Sanders hasn't done it yet. These players come with injury concerns and it's fair to wonder how much time they'll each spend on the treatment table. Add them into a group that contains Conor Thomas, Chris Long and Zac Williams, 3 perennially injured players if the last few seasons is anything to go by, and the physios will have their work cut out again.

It also brings me to state that should the Alex suffer with another injury crisis next season, Bell should be afforded no sympathy, as these are now his players who he chose to either bring in or re-sign. He's made his bed, he has to lie in it if things don't go according to plan.

By Committee

This raises another interesting point though. Given it's unlikely that the players mentioned above are capable of starting 35+ games, it seems like the Alex are building a squad that is deeper than it was last season. They carried a number of players last season that they never had any intention of playing. This season feels like that won't be the case. Aside from some of the youngsters, I think the majority of this squad will be utilised by Bell.

I think he is going for a squad where most of them start somewhere between 10-30 games depending on form and injuries. It's an interesting choice and we'll have to see if it pays off.

Flexibility

But the positive from this is, I do believe he's recruited players who can play multiple roles. Jack Lankester has started his Alex career out wide, but also seems like he could play down the middle as a number 10. Max Sanders can seemingly be the swiss army knife midfielder they lacked at times last season. We already know that Chris Long can play either on the left or upfront in a 2. Lewis Billington, Mickey Demetriou and Zac Williams can play either centrally or at full back in defence.

Bell is clearly looking to have multiple systems he can deploy at any given moment. Whether having viable plans A, B and C means they never really have a strong plan A remains to be seen, but I think we're going to see the Alex's starting XI and system be harder to guess than at any point we've seen under previous managers.

Spread the Goals

I think we're also going to see a spread out workload when it comes to the attacking play. Teams like Bradford and Notts County rely on one central striker to do the heavy lifting for goals. I think the Alex will be asking each of Hemmings, Bogle, Long, Lankester, Tracey, Tabiner and Holicek to each contribute somewhere between 5-10 goals, which if they each managed 6, would equal 42. Add in the odd contribution from elsewhere and I would suggest this is how they would like their goals spread.

Creativity also looks to be split between multiple players. For those, I'm looking at Powell(when fit), Tabiner, Holicek, Lankester, Tracey and Long. I'd imagine with each of those players, they are expecting 5-10 assists. I don't think we're about to see any players do a Jodi Jones and Macauley Langstaff and run away with the assists/goals tallies.

Rough and Ready

One thing I do also think we need to come to terms with is how Bell will want this side to play. I think we're going to see more of what we saw last season. I don't think he will move towards a total possession style, like his predecessors did. But I don't think he's going full Steve Evans and making this team a group of long ball hoof merchants either.

He seems to be looking to blend the attractive with the pragmatic. I'm sure he wants to play nice passing football, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Alex are once again a side that perhaps have less of the ball than we're used to, focus on defensive shape and have a threat at set pieces. The signings of Hemmings and Bogle in attack suggests to me they are focused on greater physical presence and I think Lankester and Sanders also provide that.

But, they clearly have technical ability in Lankester and Sanders on early evidence. Add that into the likes of Tabiner, Holicek, Williams and Powell and it gives you a group that are just as comfortable on the ball as they are off it.

General Predictions

Player of the Season: Mickey Demetriou

This is a really tough one, because there are so many potential candidates. However, given the boom or bust nature of a lot of them, where they could fly or flop, I'm going for the first repeat winner in god knows how long. Demetriou is taking on an increased leadership role and if he plays to even 75% of the levels he managed last season, he'll win this award for the 2nd season in a row.

Breakthrough Player of the Season: Owen Lunt

I think this is Lunt's time to shine. He turns 20 in September and after a lost 23-24 due to back issues, he looks fit and ready to roll. He's stood out in pre-season, against admittedly low quality opposition. But if the injuries hit in midfield as they could well do, if he stays fit he could easily find himself in the starting XI on a regular basis. And if he takes it, he might suddenly become a regular fixture in the team.

Top goalscorer: Omar Bogle

This is a tough one, given what I think might happen in a scoring by committee system. Long, Bogle and Hemmings are the obvious 3 choices. I'll go optimistic and say Bogle will bag the most.

Top assister: Jack Lankester

On paper, the Alex have done a decent job adding creativity. There are several candidates for this one. I'll go optimistic and say their new signing will bag the most, but it'll be very close between 4-5 players I think.

Most Yellow Cards: Conor Thomas

I can't not pick Thomas for this one can I? With Nevitt and Rowe gone, he's the most likely candidate after finishing 3rd in the rankings last season.

10 (Bold?) Crewe Alex League Predictions

Jack Lankester and Shilow Tracey will surpass their career highs for goals and assists

Lankester's career high is 7. Tracey's career high is also 7. I'm really hoping for big seasons from both players and I feel surpassing those totals should be do-able.

One player will reach 10 assists

The Alex don't often get players who rack up the assists, but I really hoping someone manages it this season. They have only had 1 player manage it since 2013, that being Charlie Kirk in 2019-20. There are a few candidates for this, but for now I'll leave it open for anyone to hit it.

The Alex will finish with a goal difference of more than +5

They've only finished with a positive goal difference 5 times since 2003. Those occasions were 10-11(+22), 11-12(+8), 18-19(+1), 19-20(+24) and 23-24(+4). So as you can see, it's rare they finish in the positive column for this stat and even rarer that it gets above +5. But that's what I'm hoping to see this season.

At least 20 goals and 20 assists will come from academy graduates

Last season only 13 goals and 17 assists came from academy graduates. That's not a terrible total, but compare that to 19-20 when they got 60 combined and this number needs to improve. And I think they do it. Between Tabiner, Holicek, Agius, Finney, Williams, Billington and Lunt, I think they can 40 goals and assists between them.

The Alex's xG for will be in the top 10 in League Two(as per FotMob)

Last season, the Alex might have hit 69 goals, but their xG was poor in comparison, ranking only 15th league wide at 59.6. I'm hoping they can get more than that. Now, I don't know if that will see them score more than they did last season, but having more and better chances can't hurt. I'm hoping their attacking output takes a jump and moves into the top 10 for xG created.

The Alex will post a better home points record than last season

They better. Last season they finished 11-5-7 at home, despite managing a point more in 22-23. Too many teams have found ways to take points away from Gresty Road and if the Alex want to do anything this season, they need to find a way of doing better at home. I think they do it.

The Alex will have a 4,500+ home fan average across the season

Last season, they had 4,470 average for home fans in their 23 games. This might seem like an easy hit, but with no Stockport or Wrexham, those numbers could drop. The return of Port Vale might offset that somewhat, but I think this is a very optimistic prediction. Let's see.

The Alex will take at least 3 points off Port Vale

They damn well better. I'm tired of this fixture being so one sided. They haven't beaten the Vale since 2017 at Vale Park and you have to go back to 2014 for the last home victory. I want to see them take at least one of the games, I don't care if it's home or away.

They will surpass last season's 13 clean sheets

Despite sometimes having a leaky sieve of a defence, the Alex's back line managed to keep 13 clean sheets in 23-24. I'm hoping they can emulate that stat and put up more. Hopefully with a more reliable goalkeeping situation and a potentially better team in front of them, the opposition will be blanked regularly.

2 players or fewer will start over 30 times

Most clubs build a strong starting XI which they hope will start the majority of their games. Bell is going in the opposite direction, clearly trying to balance his squad so that they could each play 25-30 times if needed. Given that, I don't see many players aside from a few mainstays starting more than 30 times this season. I think the vast majority of this squad will start 25-30 times and not much more than that.

Table Prediction

8th

I said 20th in 22-23 and they finished 13th, 7 spots ahead of my prediction. Last season, I said 15th and they finished 6th, which is 9 spots better. So, let's keep it rolling. I'll say they improve another 5 spots and finish 8th. Which hopefully means they'll be getting automatic promotion.

Record: 12-7-4(Home), 6-7-10(Away), 66-60 Goals for-against, Points 68