Crewe Alex 2025-26 Season Preview Part 2 – Overall Thoughts and Predictions

We're back with the 2nd and final part of my Crewe Alex 2025-2026 season preview. In part 1 yesterday, I looked at each contracted player in the Alex's squad and broke them down individually and then assessed each position group. In this part, I'm going to give some overall takeaways and observations I have about the Alex's management and players as it stands heading into the new season,

Then I'll make my annual list of 10 bold predictions about the Alex and we'll see come the end of the season how many I got right. So, let's get into some overall thoughts:

Attack

The biggest concern I have with Lee Bell isn't that he can't get results. For most of 23-24 and around half of 24-25, he's proven he can. But what worries me more than his win record is his inability to get this team playing with any semblance of a consistent attack.

In 23-24, they finished 19th in shots on target per game with 3.9 and 15th with 59.6 xG. Last season, they regressed in both categories, slipping to 3.4 shots on target per game and a 55.2 xG. Across both seasons, they ranked 19th and 16th for touches in the opposition box.

Now, you can win promotions by having a so-so attack so long as you have a stellar defence. But to win said promotion, their attack has got to be better than anything they've produced in the last 2 seasons. Why? Well that's what the historical evidence tells you. In 23-24, the top 3 finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in xG. In 24-25, all the sides that finished in the top 7 were in the top 10 for xG.

In 23-24, 6 of the 7 sides who finished in the top 7 finished in the top half for shots on target per game. The Alex were the only side that didn't. Last season, all of the top 7 finished inside the top 10 in this category whilst the Alex finished 19th. I think you get the point.

The Alex's attack has been woeful since joining L2 in 2022, not just for goals scored but in the underlying numbers as well. Between 1983 and 2022, they had never scored fewer than 56 goals in a 4th tier season. They've now done twice in the last 3, with Bell in charge for in at least part of both seasons. What's more concerning though is their regression in this area, which over the last 12 months makes for worrying reading. Yes, there are reasons why they've found it difficult, namely not being able to afford the best talent compared to other heavy hitters in the division and some rotten injury luck.

But to me, their issues also come down to philosophy. Bell last season quickly abandoned the idea of the Alex being open and attacking in favour of a low scoring, defence first approach. It worked for a time, but when their defence started to struggle, there was no answer at the other end. After putting 4 past Bromley in early January, the Alex scored 16 goals in their final 22 games and were blanked 12 times. It was utterly dreadful. Can Bell get this group firing and moving up the various attacking charts?

Lack of goals

Well, leading on from that point, the pre-season has been a bit of a disaster for trying to build a consistent attacking group. Jack Lankester has been recovering from his meniscus injury and still seems several weeks away at least. Shilow Tracey is recovering from his broken leg and doesn't look likely to return until maybe even 2026.

Matus Holicek has sidelined by an issue in his groin which they have only just recently taken steps to remedy. Adrien Thibaut has missed all bar 1 of the friendlies with a hamstring injury. Omar Bogle has been MIA for the entire pre-season. And to cap it all off, Joel Tabiner damaged his ACL in the 2nd friendly and is out for the season.

Now, they have address this area of weakness by signing Tommi O'Reilly, Emre Tezgel and Louis Moult, but the fact is, between those 3 and Josh March, they are still thin and lacking in proven quality. Goals still look like they will be very hard to come by, at least in the early stages of this season until Lankester, Holicek and Tracey return.

Not So Loan Heavy

In 2023-24, 103 of the 506 starts in the league were made up by loanees, just 20.3%.

Last season, that jumped to 156 and 30.8% respectively. It was unsustainably high. Now, I'm not saying the management intended for it to turn out that way. Injuries, restrictions in the transfer window and other factors outside of their control like had an influence. But almost a third of your appearances by players that won't be coming back the following season is an issue.

Well, on paper it appears that the management are ensuring that isn't repeated this season. They have filled the gaps left by loanees with permanent signings or contracted players who were here last season. Tom Booth is the de facto number 1 keeper to replace Filip Marschall. Reece Hutchinson replaces Max Conway. James Connolly, at least for now, looks likely to replace the minutes of Jamie Knight-Lebel and Connor O'Riordan.

Yes, injuries and form will again largely determine how loan heavy the team actually ends up being and the injuries upfront have probably thrust O'Reilly and Tezgel into starting spots. But it does feel like they are doing their utmost to build a squad of players that are their own. Which is always the best way to do things. Loanees should complement the team, not makeup it's spine.

Home Performances

A big concern for me is how the Alex's home form has actually regressed for 2 straight seasons now. After putting up 39 points in 22-23, they managed 38 points in 23-24 but dropped to 33 points last season. That was the joint 4th fewest points they've put up at home in a 4th tier season since 1983.

In the 19 seasons of 4th tier football they've played since 1983, they also scored the 2nd fewest goals and won less than 10 games at home for only the 5th time in 2024-25. No matter which way you slice it, the lack of wins, goals and points at home was and is a big issue and it needs to be fixed.

Well, this comes down to philosophy. There is nobody in this division that should scare the Alex or make them go into a home game feeling 2nd best or like a point would be a good result. They should be targeting strong performances, goals and wins and whilst I know that sounds silly as they will say they were doing that all last season, they've not done well enough in achieving this in the last 2 seasons. It needs to improve a lot over the next 9 months.

Take A Step

The biggest factor the Alex need to be successful though is that they need their youngsters to take a step. Whilst the likes of Demetriou, Powell, Sanders, Lankester, Moult and March will be important, for me their season hinges on various players taking a step forward in their development.

Now, what levels of improvement they have to unlock remains to be seen. But In Tom Booth, Lewis Billington, Charlie Finney, Owen Lunt, Callum Agius and Matus Holicek, they have what could become the core of another golden generation. How likely is that? Not very at this stage. But the potential is there. If the majority of these players take a step or two in their development, then the Alex will have a good season, of that I'm very confident.

But if they continue to stagnate, then I don't see how they can manage more than maybe a top half finish at best. "We'll go as far as our kids take us" was Dario's famous line. That feels as true today as it ever has been.

Solid but Unspectacular

All this leads me to believe that the Alex are destined for a mundane, mid-table season. It would take all the stars aligning and given the lingering questions over the management and the various injury issues upfront, I think they won't have enough quality to crack the top 7. Or even the top half.

But then, nor do I think they are anywhere near bad enough to finish down near the bottom as a couple of pundits have suggested. For me, this season is about building a proper identity which hopefully involves some exciting football and a few more goals. It's about trusting in the youth and hoping to see clear signs of progression from said youngsters. Personally, I'd take a season where they finish 12th, with 60 odd goals scored and signs of positivity to take into 26-27.

I'm not writing the season off before a ball has been kicked and I'll love it for the management to shove my fence sitting down my throat with a return to play-off contention. But do I see it happening as of right now? No I don't.

General Predictions

Player of the Season: Josh March

This is a tough one. Demetriou's form dipped last season and the rest of the squad all carry question marks as to how good they will be. In the end, I'll go with another new boy to win it, for the 5th season in a row.

Breakthrough Player of the Season: Callum Agius

With Holicek winning the award last season, there aren't many candidates. Owen Lunt and Charlie Finney are possibilities I suppose, but they'll be 21 and 22 this season. I also don't see the likes of Dancey, Armstrong or Hodkin playing enough to factor in either. So, the only logical choice is Agius.

Top goalscorer: Josh March

Like the above award, there aren't many obvious choices here. There aren't many proven goalscorers in this squad, so I suppose I'll have to go with the player that scored the most out of any player last season, even if it was for another team. I predict he'll sneak into double figures and scored around 10-12.

Top assister: Jack Lankester

Whilst I'm hoping there is some strong competition here, I'm going to stick with Lankester to finish top of this category for the 2nd straight season. If he doesn't win it, hopefully that means someone like Tezgel, Holicek or Hutchinson have outshone him.

Most Cards: Reece Hutchinson

With Ryan Cooney gone, Zac Williams stalling on a new deal and Conor Thomas likely not playing all that much due to injury, it really is a wide open field for who picks up the most cards. I'll go with Hutchinson, who picked up a few in the League of Ireland.

10 (Bold?) Crewe Alex League Predictions

The Alex will win on either the opening day or Boxing Day or both

This might look odd at first, but then you realise just how poor their records are on both of these days. Then you also add in the fact that both games are away from home and they've never won at Moor Lane in 5 visits and have won 2 of their last 12 visits to Walsall and it means this prediction is already a long shot. I'm just trying manifest it into existence.

Jack Lankester, Callum Agius and Matus Holicek will combine for 20 goals + 20 assists

I originally had Tabiner in this group, but that had to change. This is a long shot as it relies on at least 2 of them taking production jumps on what they managed in 24-25. I keep saying these 3 are vital to their hopes in 25-26 and if they can hit the above tallies together as a trio, then the Alex will be in business.

Lee Bell will win a manager of the month award

I have my doubts about his long term future about manager, but I'll go out on a limb and say he'll find a way to win one of these awards as, for as much as he's struggled at various points over the last 2 seasons, he does get this team into some consistent form for 4-5 stretches. Would a unbeaten 3 wins out of 4 sort of month in September or October and MOTM trophy surprise me? No, not really.

The Alex will have fewer than 100 yellow cards

In the last 2 seasons, they have managed to pick up 109 and 103 bookings. It's been a big issue for them, something both the manager and chairman have acknowledged. I won't predict reds, because they are very unpredictable, but I will say they will drop below 100 in the yellows category, which would be a positive step forward for them.

They will reach the 3rd Round of the FA Cup

I'm manifesting this with every fibre of my being. I'm praying and begging and hoping this comes true. The club is desperate for a cup run. For the exposure, the hype and of course, the finances. How much money has been lost in all their early exits? I don't know how they'll do it, but I am on my knees asking for to make the 3rd round for only the 2nd time since 2009-10.

Tom Booth will match or better Ben Garratt's clean sheet record from the 2016-17 season

This one I don't think will come true and it's the longest of long shots. The reason why I'm making it is because Garratt holds the single season record for the most clean sheets by a homegrown academy keeper with 12, which he managed in the 16-17 season. But for this to come true, Booth would have to stay in goal for at least 40 games and keep a clean sheet ratio of 1 in every 3.5 games. That's tough. The chances of this hitting are slim.

They will post a positive goal difference for the 3rd straight season

Again, this might seem like an odd one. But given they haven't managed this since the 90s, when they did it for 5 straight years, it feels significant if they do manage it this time around. I won't put a prediction on how many it will be, but it'll be at least +1.

They will be inside the top 10 for accurate passes per game

This club will only be successful by playing football on the ground. It doesn't have be total football like we see from teams like MK or Notts County, but we do need to see a progression. It could happen without much effort, given they finished 12th in this category last season and 4 of the teams who finished above them left the division in Doncaster, Port Vale, Bradford and Carlisle. They could move into the top 10 and not improve at all numbers wise.

The Alex's player of the season will be someone who wasn't on the team last season

The last 4 winners have been Chris Long(21-22), Rod McDonald(22-23), Mickey Demetriou(23-24) and Max Conway(24-25). All 4 were in their first seasons at the club when they won this trophy. I predict that to continue for another season.

No player will start every league game in 25-26

Going back to 2008-09, 17 seasons, only 7 players have played in every single league game for the club and never more than 1 in a season. This season I predict to be an off year where every single player will miss at least 1 game for whatever reason. There will be no ironmen in this season's squad.

Table Prediction

Will they be bad enough to start worrying about relegation? No, I don't think so. And if they do, then Bell will be out and either Mike Jackson or David Vaughan will come and probably steady the ship. But do I think we'll see them bounce back to the heights of early last season or 23-24? No, I don't think so either.

Negatively, whilst you can be high on their chances, they need almost everyone in the squad to have a career year, especially in front of goal. The only double figures player in the squad is Omar Bogle and he almost certainly won't pull on a Crewe shirt again. Not one player in the squad has 10 assists. There are very few sure things in this group and almost every player has a question mark over them.

On the flip side, I do think it's fair to be bullish about some players taking a step, the core staying fit and them bouncing back from the end of last season to post a reasonable season. I don't think they have the quality to break into the top 7, but I don't think they are bad enough to finish in the bottom 8. So, I'll sit on the fence and say they'll be very close to where they finished last season.

Prediction Record: 

10-7-6(Home), 5-7-11(Away), 58-55 Goals for-against, Points 59

Predicted Finish:

14th