Crewe Alex v Bristol Rovers 25/26 Preview - The Law of Averages

Crewe Alex and reduced home ticket prices have usually equalled disaster in the last 2 seasons. 2 pre-Christmas reductions have resulted in 1 point and 1 goal scored from Barrow(1-3) and Colchester(0-0). The mini-season ticket offers for the final 3 games of each of the seasons have resulted in 6 straight losses and just 2 goals scored. So, after all that horrible form, the law of averages say they must be due a result eventually right? Right?!

They must soon be able to come out on the right side of one of these games. Well, I hope it's this game, as seeing a packed Gresty Road rocking would be a sight to behold. Here is my preview of the Bristol Rovers visit to South Cheshire for the final pre-Christmas game and their final home game of 2025:

Law of Averages Against

We looked at the law of averages working in the Alex's favour. Well, let's look at the law of averages which is working against them, as we can't dance around the elephant in the room that is the Gas' form any longer. They come into this game having lost an incredible 10 straight league games. They started their slide at the beginning of October and it hasn't stopped since. That is frankly an ridiculous run. The 97-98 Doncaster Rovers team, which finished on just 20 points only lost 8 straight. More recently, the Scunthorpe team which finished on 26 points in 21-22 only lost 7 straight. 10 on the bounce is almost unheard of.

Which then makes you immediately think that their losing run is going to come to an end against the Alex. It's 100% nailed on isn't it? I'm not saying they'll win, but them coming away with a rot stopping result of some kind feels pretty inevitable doesn't it?

New Manager Bounce

You want a 2nd factor which makes Bristol Rovers coming away with a result feel set in stone? The fact that Darrell Clarke was sacked last week, unsurprising given that said run of defeats. They have now turned the pantomime villain himself, Steve Evans, to guide them to better times, until the end of the season at least.

Him being on the touchline will add a fair amount of spice to the occasion and he brings in a very impressive record against the Alex as manager(7-3-1). He'll definitely give the Gas some....well...gas.

Forget That

But guess what? Rovers are down near the bottom for a reason. Maybe Darrell Clarke was the sole reason for their results being terrible and they will storm up the table under Evans. I doubt it though. If you are 23rd after 20 games, there is a reason for that and it goes beyond the manager. They rank near the bottom of the league in most metrics. Fewest goals scored, most conceded, 23rd for shot son target, 20th in big chances, 19th for touches in the opposition box, 20th in xG against.

Do I think they are one of the 2 worst teams in the division? No, probably not. In the likes of Tom Lockyer, Josh McEachran and a few others, they have quality that can hurt you. But as I said, they are down near the bottom for a reason. They are a poor side that is low on quality. If the Alex get an early lead or maybe even a 2 goal lead, the Gas player's head's will drop. There is no reason why the Alex can't win this game.

And let's not overegg Evans either. He was terrible at Leeds and got sacked. He left Mansfield without getting them into the play-offs in L2. He lasted 11 months at Peterborough before getting the boot. He was so-so at Gillingham and then failed with Rotherham, In between was of course his promotion with Stevenage, but the fact is, 1 promotion across the last 10 years with several acrimonious departures doesn't make him as scary a manager as he first seems. There is every evidence that he has lost his managerial fastball.

Performances

And that brings me on to my last point, which is about the Alex's level of performances in recent weeks. Over the last 7 games, they could and should have won more than 3. That's a fact. Oldham, Chesterfield and Newport should have all yielded 3 points. And as bad as they were at Cambridge, they should have gotten at least a draw out of that. They have been performing well for the last 6 weeks on the whole.

Why didn't they get more points then? Because they lack consistency in key moments to stay solid defensively and to take their chances when they come along. And because in some moments, they enter cruise control with the game still in the balance. If they are fortunate enough to get a lead in this game, they cannot for 1 second ease off. They need to keep pushing, keep creating chances and only if they have the game safe with a 2 or 3 goal lead should they sit off or drop into cruise control.

Like it or not, the big home crowd will be nervous if we see the Alex play like they did against Newport, where they got ahead and dropped into 1st gear to see the game out. There is no excuse for doing that this time, because their next game isn't for another week. All they need to do is win this game, then they can relax and enjoy the Christmas week off the back of 2 straight wins and 4 wins from their last 8. They know what is needed, on and off the pitch. Time for them to do it.

Ref Watch

Michael Barlow

Barlow is in his 2nd season in the EFL and he's never stood out as a noteworthy ref, either in a good or bad way. That's about all I've got to say about him.

2025-26 Record: 9 games(4 League Two, 3 National League, 1 FA Cup, 1 EFL Trophy), 33 yellows, 1 red

Last Game: Cheltenham Town 1-1 Harrogate Town, EFL League Two, 13th December 2025, 3 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 0-1-0, 0 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

Is their light at the end of the tunnel on the injury front? I sure hope so. Lee Bell talked about welcoming 1 or 2 back into the fold and I hope he wasn't just talking about Louis Moult and Jack Powell in that regard. All eyes will be on Mickey Demetriou, Jack Lankester, Conor Thomas and Omar Bogle in order of importance to see if they return. Matus Holicek remains out, as I suspect will James Golding.

Bristol Rovers

The Gas were missing defenders Joel Senior, Stephen Negru and Macauley Southam-Hales and strikers Promise Omechere and Ellis Harrison from last week's game against Swindon, all of whom probably would be starters if fit. In good news, they do have Josh McEachran back from suspension, but they lost Kasper Łopata to a red card against the Robins, so he'll be out.

Team

I get the temptation to stick with the same starting XI as last week, but I'm not so sure. I think Sam Waller will continue in goal, but is there any other option than Calum Agius at RB? There doesn't appear to be, unless Demetriou or Golding return, given Mingi and isn't an option in the manager's eyes and Finney should never play there again.

If Thomas doesn't return, I'm fine with Lunt and Sanders in midfield, but I would make a slight tweak up front and start Rankine on the left wing and move March inside, which would then allow Tezgel to move back to the main striker role. I know Thibaut worked hard against Tranmere, but a March/Tezgel combo down the middle fills me with more confidence than Thibaut/Tezgel and March out wide. I'd imagine it will be the same XI as last week assuming Demetriou or Thomas aren't fit.

Score Prediction

I don't care that Rovers have lost 10 straight. I don't care that they have just got a new manager. I don't even care that the Alex haven't performed in front of reduced price home crowds in recent seasons. Put simply, this is a home game against the side 23rd in the table. If you want to be in the top 7 come the end of the season, this is a game you need to win. They fluffed their lines against Newport. I hope they don't fluff them again in this one.

Crewe Alexandra 2-1 Bristol Rovers