Crewe Alex v Carlisle United 24/25 Preview - New Year's Day Again Ole Ole

Crewe Alex v Carlisle on New Year's Day is becoming quite the occurrence isn't it? This is the 4th time in 12 years that this exact fixture has fallen on January 1st. The Alex have won the previous 3 encounters in 2013, 2014 and 2020 by a 7-2 margin. Can they make it 4 wins from 4 or will the struggling Cumbrians throw a spanner in the works? Here is my first preview of 2025:

No Excuses

Sure, blame dropped home points against Salford and Colchester as the Alex coming up against tricky physical teams who've mastered the art of avoiding defeat on the road and know how to play for draws. Blame the Bradford draw on terrible weather conditions.

But there is no excuse for not beating Carlisle. You cannot expect to be in a promotion race if you can't beat the side sat 23rd in the league at home. Yes, they'll be a tricky opponent, as all teams are, but this is simply a game you have to be winning.

Outside looking in

Part of the reason why they'll need to start picking up regular wins is they once again, much like last season, find themselves on the outside of the top 7 looking in. Last season they suffered a dip in December and started 2024 in 8th. Fast forward 12 months and they;re in the exact same spot. Yes, the league is incredibly tight, with just 1 point separating the 7 sides in 2nd down to 8th. But the Alex starting 2025 outside the top 7 should be the wake up call they need to get their act together and start rattling off wins, from what is a pretty favourable set of fixtures in the coming weeks.

January Recovery

They should be aided by the fact that January is often a good month for them form wise. Going back to 2018-19, they have gone 13-11-7 in games in the first month of the year. Last season, January being a hugely important month for them as they went 4-0-1 to catapult themselves not just back into the top 7, but into top 3 contention as well. With them playing 5 straight teams outside the top 10 in the next few weeks, if can haul in 10-15 points from those fixtures, they'll be over the 50 point barrier and well set up going forward.

Lack of Goals

Turning to the opposition, by far the biggest issue facing Carlisle is their chronic lack of goals. Ok, they scored twice last time out against Accrington, but one of those came from a calamitous goalkeeping error. They have scored just 17 goals, which is the 2nd lowest tally in the league. They perhaps should have scored more, given they have created 23.5 xG, but they are 19th for shots on target per match, so it shows they simply aren't creating enough chances. I'd really hope the Alex can keep Carlisle out in this game.

Ref Watch

Simon Mather

Mather has never come across as particularly noteworthy in the Alex games he's taken charge of. It's funny though, because this season his yellow card rate is quite low, but his red card rate is very high. What a weird little quirk.

2024/25 Record: 18 games(8 League One, 6 League Two, 1 National league, 2 FA Cup, 1 League Cup), 55 yellows, 5 reds

Last Game: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Harrogate Town, EFL League Two, 29th December 2024, 2 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 1-2-2, 7 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

The Alex will be hoping Jack Lankester's tight hamstring will have loosened up in time to play this game, but him playing in these conditions concerns me. Him aside, it looks like the rest of the squad statuses remain the same, with only Thomas, Hemmings and Robinson out.

Carlisle United

New signing Will Patching will probably be in the squad, but their injury issues remain extensive. Archie Davies, Terell Thomas, Charlie Wyke and Georgie Kelly are out. There are also doubts over Callum Guy, Ben Williams and Tyler Burey, who missed all the game with Accrington.

Team

This becomes really tricky. Can Bell just name mostly the same team that he's gone with for the last 2 games, given a lot of them looked shattered after the MK Dons game?

Probably not, but then where can you change things given the fringe players have been getting so little opportunity to impress lately? If Lankester is fit to start, he surely comes in, but then who comes out between Tracey and Bogle? Probably Bogle, given how much Bell seems to love Tracey, regardless of how much he actually contributes.

Any other changes? It seems doubtful because who comes out and who comes in? I'll have to name the same XI as the MK game, but I wouldn't grumble at a few changes either.

Score Prediction

I can't not predict a win. Yes, Carlisle will be feeling a bit better about things after their win on Sunday, but the fact is, they are still 23rd in the league, have scored 7 away goals all season and have won 2 away games all season. This has to be a win, it just has to be.

Crewe Alexandra 2-0 Carlisle United