Crewe Alex v Colchester United 24/25 Preview - A Sell Out

The Alex are kind aren't they? Moving the last Saturday before Christmas home game to the Friday night for the 2nd year in a row, enabling all the football going Alex fans to have a full weekend to go shopping with the family. How generous and festive of them! Whilst Barrow were the visitors last season, this time it's Colchester making the long trip to Gresty Road. Here is my preview of the game:

I'm Not Leaving!

The rumours broke on social media last Sunday that Lee Bell had been presented an offer by Burton Albion to become their new manager, on allegedly a significant increase in salary and contract length. Thankfully, any panic was quickly put to rest on Monday with the official confirmation that he was rejecting the offer and staying at the club. Whilst that offer and the discussion around his contract status is one for another time, it'll be pleasing to have a fully united ground all rallying around him and his staff as the Alex bid to head into Christmas in the top 3.

A Sell Out?

The Alex, in a bid to make this another bumper pre-Christmas crowd, have rearranged the stadium and who will sit where. Crewe Alex fans will, for one game only, occupy the Main Stand, Gresty Road End and old Pop Side at the same time, whilst Colchester fans will get the Railway End only. It's a configuration I don't think we've ever seen before, given when they did the Covid restricted crowds back in 20-21, away fans weren't allowed and home fans occupied all 4 sides, but socially distanced.

What it does mean is that we also could be about to see a record number of Crewe fans in the stadium since the main stand was built in 1999 and the stadium became an all seater venue. 90%(9,171) of the stadium is available to home fans, which is easily as high an allocation as we've seen since 99. Some on social media pointed to the Everton back in 2002 where there were technically 3 sides full of Crewe fans, but let's be real and admit a number of people sat in the home ends for those games were away supporters. I don't think we'll be seeing any Colchester fans in the home ends this time.

With over 8,000 home tickets sold at the time of posting, this game very well could be the largest number of Alex supporters ever seen at Gresty Road since their 1960 FA Cup game with Tottenham. It's hopefully going to be a bouncing atmosphere inside the ground.

Better this time

12 months ago when the Alex faced Barrow on the Friday before Christmas in front of a bumper home crowd, they were a broken and battered wreck. They named a bench that contained a sub keeper, 5 scholars and a first year pro and went into the game having failed to win in their previous 4. They were also facing a Barrow team off the back of a run of 7 straight wins. Everything about the game just screamed defeat and so it proved, as they fought bravely but went down to a 3-1 defeat.

This time around, there should be no such issues. Ok, they're missing a few players in Hemmings, Thomas and Robinson. But in a sign of how much better the depth of this squad is this season, you could argue that none of them, maybe Hemmings aside, have been badly missed. Their last game before the Barrow game was a last minute 3-3 draw at home to Accrington. This time, they're coming off the back of a decent 2-0 win at Grimsby.

There will be no excuses this time around about having a decimated squad or being in poor form.

Perform

The last 2 points bring me onto my 3rd one. The Alex last season wilted in front of a big crowd. They went 3-3-6 at Gresty Road in games where the attendance was over 5,000 fans. Thankfully this season, they seem to have gotten over that stage fright, being 3-0-1 in games with over half the stadium full(I don't count the Bradford game where there was never 5,000 fans in the ground). But this will be a whole new level.

My fears of a scrappy 1-0 away win have grown substantially over the last few days. I hope beyond hope that they can perform and not scare off all those first time or casual fans. A good performance and result could be monumental in kick starting dozens if not hundreds of new Alex fans journeys with the team. Please don't choke lads. Please.

Mixed Fortunes

Colchester are a bizarre team. They only have 3 wins, which is bad. But they also have only lost 5, which is pretty decent. They, like a few sides this season, are held back by too many draws. They have a positive goal difference, which to me is a sign that they aren't a bad team. Their away form looks very similar to Salford's in that they've drawn 6 of 9, winning 1 and losing 2.

There are signs that things are starting to click for them though. They're on a 6 game unbeaten run and haven't conceded in their last 4. In the likes of Tovide, Payne, Read, Taylor and others, they have a decent group of players that possibly should be doing better than they are.

Still, they are where they are on merit and most of the underlying stats say they are a mid-table team at best. Whilst the Alex need to respect them, they also shouldn't fear them either.

King of the Shithouses

The Alex have become good at the dirty side of the game no doubt. They've also come up against some teams that take it to the next level. Salford and Bradford are 2 that stick out. However, I think we need to be ready for just how bad Colchester will be. They seem like a side fully moulded into the style that the Cowley brother's want to see.

After reading reports from other games they've played, we know how they'll come and play. They'll look to get every soft foul they can. They'll slow the game down, time waste and look to come for a 1-0 win. The Alex need to be smart in how they play and avoid getting sucked into the game Colchester will want to play.

Poor Record

I don't like to make this point as I feel like I'm jinxing things, but Colchester hate travelling to Gresty Road. Since 1986, they've triumphed here just twice, with the record standing at 11 wins for the Alex, 2 for the Us and 5 draws. The 2 wins were in the 2011 FA Cup game when Ashley Westwood was sent off with the Alex leading 1-0. And the other was in 2014-15, when the Alex were dreadful and almost got relegated. I really hope the Alex's good run in this fixture at Gresty Road keeps going.

Ref Watch

Geoff Eltringham

After seemingly have week after week of rookie refs, now we get a veteran. This is his 16th season in the EFL. His first Crewe game? A 2-1 defeat against Morecambe in 2009! His last? The 3-0 defeat against Forest Green last season? His Crewe record is a big concern. Let's hope that record doesn't continue, as he's clearly a bad luck charm.

2024/25 Record: 11 games (2 Championship, 2 League One, 4 League Two, 1 FA Cup, 2 League Cup), 41 yellows, 3 reds

Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-0 Millwall, EFL Championship, 14th December 2024, 4 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 2-3-7, 13 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

Lee Bell revealed that Conor Thomas sustained a serious looking knee injury in training, which is a terrible blow for the player, who was seemingly on the verge of a return from another injury. Thankfully Chris Long's absence last week was only illness related, so hopefully his return is imminent. Kane Hemmings is closing in on a return, as is Nathan Robinson, but they remain out. We had no updates on Booth and Thibaut, so who knows if they are fit or not.

Colchester

I think I'm right in saying they'll be without defenders Manny Egbo and Tom Flanagan, who picked up their 5th yellows last week against Newport in their 19th game. Also likely missing are CB Ben Goodliffe, CM Alex Woodyard and ST Tom Hopper, who all didn't feature against Newport.

Team

They say don't change a winning team. I don't agree with that, I never have. You name the team that you think gives you the best chance of winning the game. Does last week's starting XI do that? Or do you perhaps want to see the odd tweak here and there? If Bogle is fit to start, do you bring him in to combat a likely physical Colchester side? I think you might do.

But then, who makes way? I feel bad to keep throwing Connolly's name around, but can you really go into an important home game with 6 defenders all starting? Away from home, when you want to set up to play on the counter, ok. But at home, where you want to hopefully put on a show for 7,000 Alex supporters?

So, I'm dropping Connolly for Bogle, assuming Bogle can give you 60-70 minutes. He slots in alongside Lankester and everyone else moves into their natural positions, with Williams moving back into CB alongside Demetriou and Knight-Lebel. Conway and Cooney stay at wing back and Holicek drops into midfield alongside Tabiner and Sanders.

The bench is then whoever is fit to play, with plenty of options to choose from. Tracey off the bench with 30 minutes to go is an enticing prospect, but Lunt, Breckin, Powell, Connolly, Finney, Roberts and potentially Thibaut and Booth are all possibilities.

Score Prediction

A win. That's all I want. I don't care how it comes. Give all those fans who are turning up for the first time this season something to cheer about, something they never got against Barrow last season. Or in those final 3 games where they lost 3-0 in each. Or in the play-off first leg. The nasty habit of not turning up for big crowds needs to end. And this is a great chance to do just that. I'll take a narrow win thanks very much.

Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Colchester United