Crewe Alex v Gillingham 24/25 Preview - i-NEV-itable

Home again and after a free midweek, a chance to put right the wrongs of their defeat at Newport. Home form is key and after showing improvements week on week at Gresty Road in the last few weeks, the Alex have a chance to continue that by picking up another against top of the table Gillingham. Here is my preview of the game:

Any different?

What eventually cost Neil Harris and then Stephen Clemence their jobs at Priestfield was the chronic lack of goals in their team. Over the last 2 seasons, they scored just 82 goals combined, including just 36 away from home. Well, through their first 4 away games of this season, it's fair to ask what has changed. To date, they've scored 2 and conceded 1, being involved in two 1-0 wins, a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 defeat. I wouldn't expect an open and free flowing game from the visitors in this one.

Formidable but Flawed

Whilst Gillingham look formidable, there seems to be some flaws to them. They've only conceded 3 goals in 9 games, but have the 8th highest xG against. They're 18th in touches in the opposition box, 21th in possession and 16th in accurate passes. There aren't a lot of indicators to point to how they are top of the table.

That being said, they don't give up a lot of goals and will be a tough side to break down should the Alex fall behind. In Nevitt, Clarke, Little and others, they have a good core of players. But there is nothing in the stats or what I saw from them on Tuesday to suggest they should be feared. Respect them, sure. But don't fear them.

Hungry Nevitt

The Alex will avoid facing Aaron Rowe, but the other former Crewe player who rocked up in Kent in Elliott Nevitt will start. After somehow dodging a CBR goal last week, they did get stung by Lewis Leigh against Bromley, so their record against former players is mixed so far this season. What odds are there on a Nevitt goal?

Rested

The Alex were dealt an unexpected bonus/blow, depending on your perspective, with the news that their trip to Wimbledon that was supposed to take place on Tuesday was postponed due to flooding damage at Plough Lane rendering the pitch unplayable and them having to play their League Cup game against Newcastle instead.

That means the Alex will be coming off a fresh week whilst Gillingham were battling hard on Tuesday to try and get something out of their game with Grimsby. That might play a part in the latter stages of the game.

Unbeaten Run

It sounds silly, but the Alex's 3 game unbeaten home run is the longest they've managed since November and December of last year, when they beat Doncaster and Notts County and drew with Accrington. Putting a run of results together at home has been problematic for them in 2024.

Well, if they want to be considered a promotion contender, picking up results consistently at home is the best way to do that, especially against a side that will likely be in or around the top 7. Stretching their unbeaten home run to 4 would be excellent, especially given their next 2 opponents are bottom half teams in Salford and Tranmere.

Ref Watch

Anthony Backhouse

A name that should be familiar to Alex fans, he's on his 6th visit to Gresty Road since 2017. In 17-18 he made 4 different visits to the stadium. He also took charge of this fixture back in 21/22, when the Alex emerged 2-0 winners. Let's hope for more of the same.

2024/25 Record: 6 games(3 Championship, 1 League One, 2 League Cup) 26 yellows, 1 red

Last Game: Norwich City 4-1 Watford, 26th September 2024, EFL Championship,

Crewe Alex Record: 7-1-4, 15 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

Well, if we wanted clarity on the Alex's injured players, we didn't get one in Kenny Lunt's pre-match press conference. He did rule out Chris Long, as we know Robinson and Powell aren't fit yet. But as for the other 6(Hemmings, Tabiner, Lunt, Bogle, Holicek and Thomas), you honestly couldn't tell if they would make it or not. So that makes predicting the team almost impossible.

Gillingham

Former Alex loanee Aaron Rowe will miss out due to a hamstring injury. They might be about to welcome back Bradley Dack, but it looks like Conor Masterson and Josh Andrews will both not quite make it. Their other doubt is Remeao Hutton, who has a slight hamstring issue and is touch and go for this game.

Team

Working on the worst case scenario that every injured player mentioned in Lunt's pre-match press conference won't make it(and I'm hoping 2-3 will), we'll have to work with what we know is available. And that isn't much.

With only Lankester and Tracey potentially available, I'm starting those 2 together upfront. Far from ideal, but I don't think it's fair to ask Roberts or Thibaut to start in a game like this. Working backwards, Breckin comes in for Tabiner and I'm also handing Agius a start. Does this happen given Agius played 81 minutes for the U21s on Tuesday? Probably not. But that's what I'd do. Sanders then anchors the midfield.

The back 5 and keeper mercifully stay the same, as none of them seem to have any fitness concerns at the moment.

Score Prediction

This is going to be a tough game for the Alex. If they had even close to a full complement of players available to them, I might even optimistic about sneaking a win. However, as it is with a lot of their attacking options either out or carrying knocks, it's going to be a tough ask to break the Gills defence. I'm hoping they can, probably from a set piece, but for me, I'd take a draw happily at this point.

Crewe Alexandra 1-1 Gillingham