Crewe Alex v Grimsby Town 23/24 Preview - He's back!

This game is going to be interesting. Mostly due to the fact that Crewe Alex will be welcoming back Dave Artell for the first time his dismissal. It a funny turn of fate, it will be just over 2 years since he was sacked, having been canned on the 11st April 2022 and this will fall 2 years and 2 days after that. I got pelters for some of my thoughts on him earlier in the week and I won't get into all that again.

But I will say that I appreciate all he did in his spell as a player and his first 4 1/2 years at the club. The last year though soured me for sullied a lot of what he achieved as manager. I suppose though that I should move on and learn to forigve. And if he gives the Alex the 3 points that helps confirm their PO spot in this game, I will do! Anyway, here is my preview of the Alex's penultimate home game of the (regular) season:

Fighting

Grimsby are in the middle of a relegation battle. They've had a bizarre season away from home, where they've only won once, but lost only 8, with 11 draws. But the fact is, they've only won once, that being away at a similarly poor Salford team. The Alex underestimated FGR and got humiliated a few weeks ago. They cannot make the same mistake in this one, as Grimsby are battling for their lives and will fancy their chances if the Alex don't show up.

The Maths

The win on Tuesday put the play-offs back in view after some nervous glances at the table before that for Alex fans. With only a handful of games to go, the maths is now there that favourable results could see them punch their ticket after this game.

The permutations are simple:

A Crewe win and draws/defeats for Doncaster and Walsall and they are in. Wimbledon's result would become irrelevant, whilst Donny would be only able to match their points total with a 14 goal inferior GD.

A Crewe draw/defeat and defeats for Wimbledon, Doncaster and Walsall would have them needing 1 more point from their final 2 games to get in.

On the flip side, should each of those teams win, a Crewe win would leave them needing a point, regardless of what happens with the chasing teams.

Now, all 3 of the teams mentioned have winnable games against mid-table opponents, so a scenario where all 3 drop points feels unlikely. But, a win would all but do it for them and they wouldn't even need to concern themselves with other teams.

Unbeatable

The Alex used to enjoy a run of results against the Cod, but in the last 18 months, that run of games has fully flipped the other way. Grimsby have won 4 straight against the Alex, by an 11-1 margin. Still, the results have been getting steadily tighter with a 4-0, 3-0, 2-0 and 2-1 defeat seeing them edge closer to not losing. So, hopefully this game will see them go on step further and not lose for a change!

Important

This game is important not just because it could confirm the Alex a PO spot, but they also need to build on the Morecambe win and get some confidence back at home as well. Grimsby have just 1 away win and that was against a woeful Salford team. Ok, they have a bunch of draws, but this is exactly the sort of home game the Alex need to get back on track at home, with Wrexham next up. Still, I said that against FGR, so...

Ref Watch

Simon Mather

Mather is back for another Alex game after he took the Notts County game at Gresty Road back in November. Another similar scoreline would be fine with me. One thing that stands out about Mather is the utterly ridiculous amount of yellows he hands out per game, averaging 5.2 yellows and 0.3 reds, which are crazy high totals.

2023/24 Record: 33 Games(15 League One, 12 League Two, 1 League Cup, 3 EFL Trophy, 2 FA Cup), 171 yellows, 10 reds

Last Game: Leyton Orient 3-1 Cheltenham, League One, 6th April 2024, 4 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 1-2-1, 4 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

Getting Charlie Kirk and Joel Tabiner back is a big boost, but there was less positive news on Conor Thomas and CBR, who seem a couple of weeks away at least at best, which isn't ideal. Chris Long feels like he could make the squad but is unlikely to come on. Ed Turns won't be fit, there was no Harvey Davies update and there was even a worrying rumour going round social media that Tom Booth is in doubt. Good luck Lee Bell picking an XI for this game.

Grimsby

Grimsby will be without main starting keeper Harvey Cartwright, Niall Maher, Arthur Gnahoua and Anthony Driscoll-Glennon, but for the most part will come into the game with a pretty healthy squad

Team

Even with the return of Kirk and Tabiner, I doubt Bell will be able to make too many changes. But what does he do for this game? Reward most of the XI that started against Morecambe, try to keep things solid at the back and then pinch a goal or 2 on the break? Or risk going more open and getting picked off like FGR were able to do?

I think it's better to play it safe and go with the 3 at the back once again. Those 3, the wing backs and Nevitt pick themselves, but the rest is more open for debate. The midfield is a concern. With no Leigh, they surely can't start with just Austerfield and Holicek, a pairing which got picked apart against FGR. But what do you do then if Thomas isn't fit or Tabiner can't start? Williams or Adebisi to move in there for more support? Not ideal.

Upfront there are also question marks. Does Tracey start again? Do you bring in Rowe? If you do, do you go with a 3 man attack or 2? Decisions, decisions. For once, I'm going to give up trying to predict a team. Whoever starts, starts. I don't mind at this point.

Score Prediction

I can't call this one, I really can't. They could use Tuesday as a boost and get over the line with another win, especially if more bodies return from injury. They could once again struggle and scrap out a draw which does little both for sides. Or they could collapse and lose like they did last time out at home.

I'm going optimistic and say they will repeat Tuesday's narrow win.

Crewe Alex 1-0 Grimsby Town