Crewe Alex v Notts County 24/25 Preview - Total Football

Funny isn't it. 12 months ago on the 11th November 2023, the Alex played Notts County at home. And whilst the Alex put out a strong starting XI, their bench was a mess. A group of: Booth, Billington, Finney, Colkett, Agius, Nolan and Robinson underscored just how banged up and depleted they were. 12 months on and Lee Bell has far more options at his disposal, which shows how much better a position they are in squad wise than they were 12 months ago. Let's go into their home tie with Notts County, 12 months on after their last one:

Deja Vu

Rewind 12 months to the 10th November 2023, the day before the Alex played at home to...Notts County. They were 5th and Notts 2nd. County had 30 points and the Alex 29, just 1 point gap. The Alex had a 5-2-1 home record heading into the game.

Now let's come back to the 14th November 2024. The Alex are 5th and Notts County 3rd. County are on 27 points and the Alex are on 25, a 2 point gap. The Alex have a 4-2-1 home record. A lot of similarities.

Possession

We know the Alex like to cede possession to opposition teams these days. Well, that'll be especially true against Notts County, who we know are a team built around their ability to hold on to the ball. They rank 1st for possession with 64.5% and successful passes per game with 488.2 this season, with Stuart Maynard continuing the principles laid down by Luke Williams. They are going to come and try to outfootball the Alex. The question is, can they break down the Alex's stingy backline and can the Alex find ways to effectively counter that?

6 Points

Building on that last point, there is evidence that the can effectively counteract a team like Notts County given what they were able to do last season against them. They were one of only 2 teams the Alex did the double over, emerging with a scrappy 1-0 at home and a well earned and impressive 3-1 win at Meadow Lane in what turned out to be the highpoint of their league season.

They do quite well against teams who like to dominate possession. Their record against the 9 teams in the top 10 in that category(the Alex were also in there) last season was 10-3-5. Against the other 14 teams, they were 9-11-8. This season were don't yet know how they cope against the better possession teams, given they've only played 4 of them and are 0-3-1 against them. But all the evidence says these types of games are the ones they enjoy. Let's see if that holds up.

Depleted Attack

No, I'm not talking about the Alex for a change, although they will be missing a couple of players in that area. No, I'm talking about Notts County, who will be missing several attackers for this game. Alessana Jatta is off on international duty and Jodi Jones is out injured.

They have more concerns as well, with Dan Crowley not even fit to come off the bench last week at Doncaster and David McGoldrick absent for their last few games. They did get Cedwyn Scott back in midweek, but he'll likely not be in a position to start. They are far from full strength upfront and this gives the Alex an opening.

Unbeaten Away

That being said, there is only one unbeaten away record in the whole of the EFL. Notts County hold it. Given they only managed 23 points on the road last season, they have 14 already. In that unbeaten run are draws at Chesterfield, Barrow and Doncaster. However, it's worth noting that their wins came against 3 strugglers in Swindon(22nd), Bromley(19th) and Carlisle(23rd), so there is something of a flat track bully element to them.

But when you look at who they might be missing, who they are missing and couple it in with the fact that their away run is only intact thanks to late equalisers against Morecambe, Chesterfield and Barrow and you feel there is some vulnerability to them that the Alex can exploit.

Ref Watch

Stephen Copeland

This is becoming quite the occurrence isn't it? Another rookie ref who will be making his EFL debut. And the EFL are giving him 5th v 3rd in L2 in front of 6k+ fans? Geniuses. That being said, it's not his first Crewe game. He actually worked their EFL Trophy defeat at Port Vale last season, when he sent Ryan Cooney off. But this being his league debut makes me very nervous.

2024/25 Record: 11 games(1 FA Cup, 3 EFL Trophy, 7 National League), 46 yellows, 4 reds

Last Game: Port Vale 1-1 Wrexham, EFL Trophy, 12th November 2024

Crewe Alex Record: 0-0-1, 2 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

The Alex will be short 2 players from last week's squad, with Jamie Knight-Lebel and Adrien Thibaut both away on international duty. However, they could be boosted by Jack Lankester's timely return, which would more than make up for the loss of Thibaut. Aside from that, there don't seem to be any new injury concerns, which is good, with only Thomas, Hemmings and Robinson ruled out.

Notts County

As mentioned, the Pies will be missing a number of key players. Jatta and Jones are all out, plus there are doubts over David McGoldrick, former Alex loanee Scott Robertson and fellow midfielders Conor Grant and Curtis Edwards, who've all missed games recently.

Team

Knight-Lebel's absence will open up a space at RCB, which I'd expect James Connolly to step in and fill given he made the bench last week against Walsall whilst Lewis Billington was left out altogether. Elsewhere, barring any new injuries or absences, I would expect the rest of the team that started at the Bescot to continue again in this one.

The midfield 3 of Tabiner, Holicek and Sanders had their moments against Walsall and I was pleased with the impact Breckin and Lunt made in their short cameos. I'm really hoping they find a way to work in minutes for Powell and Long though, as I feel both might be needed against Port Vale and easing them in in this one could be a good way to start getting them back in the team.

Upfront I need to see more from Tracey, but him alongside Bogle is something I'd be interested to see more of going forward. The bench should remain strong, with Booth and then any 6 from Finney, Billington, Powell, Long, Lunt, Breckin, Agius and potentially Lankester giving Bell some real dilemmas.

Score Prediction

Tough. County are unbeaten on the road, play great football and have a lot of talented players. but the Alex's game plan is perfect to soak up that style and against a really depleted Magpies lineup in forward areas, it does open things up for them to snatch another win.

So, that's what I'll predict. It'll be tight and cagey and the Alex won't have much of the ball. But I think they match up against teams like Notts County quite well and they can grab the 3 points.

Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Notts County