Crewe Alex v Oldham Athletic 25-26 Preview - Catching Fire

There is something about playing Oldham that always unsettles me. I don't know what it is. Perhaps it's me being scarred after some horrific defeats to them. I still vividly remember them winning 4-1 at the end of the 07-08 season, then winning 3-0 on Boxing Day in the following seasons. There have been some better memories since then of course, most notably the final minute winner from Charlie Kirk back in 19-20. But I don't enjoy facing Oldham. Hopefully come the end of this game, I'll feel a bit better about things. Here is my preview of the Latics visit to Gresty Road:

Catching Fire

There is always one team that catches fire at the right time and surges up the table from nowhere into the promotion race. Doncaster in 23-24, Chesterfield last season. This time, it looks like it's Oldham. Their season appeared all but over after a drab 1-1 home draw with Fleetwood on Valentine's Day, with them sat 16th.

However, they've found a rich vein of form and are making a strong push for the top 7. Their win on Tuesday saw them leapfrog the Alex into 9th and they still have a game in hand. They've won 8 of their last 10 and have dispatched the likes of Grimsby, Chesterfield and Notts County in recent weeks. They have 2 strikers bang in form in Mike Fondop and Kane Drummond, with lively players behind them in Ryan Woods, Jack Stevens, Tom Pett and Kai Payne. Throw in depth off the bench in Josh Hawkes and Joe Garner and they represent a suddenly formidable foe, a far cry from the fairly poor outfit the Alex should have beaten at Boundary Park back in November.

Rearguard

Oldham's success has been built on many factors. The main one is their rock solid defence, which doesn't concede. Like, at all. They have let in just 31 goals so far this season, the 2nd best in the league behind Cambridge. However, that stat is somewhat misleading.

Whilst they might have the 2nd best defence based on goals conceded and rank 1st for clean sheets, they rank 7th for least xG conceded, shots and shots on target given up. They have outstripped their xG against by a margin of 14.4, the highest in the league.

It suggests there has been an element of fortune and bad opposition finishing in their games. The Alex's game at Boundary Park back in November is case in point. They hit the woodwork several times on the day and finished with a 1.83 xG. Harrogate last Saturday finished with a 1.75 xG. This Oldham defence is decent no question. But impregnable? Far from it per the underlying numbers. Tezgel, March, O'Reilly, Holicek and Lankester should be looking to put this Latics defensive record to the test.

Known Commodity

Oldham should not present any surprises for the Alex in this game. Mickey Mellon is one of the most experienced managers in the division. Nothing he will do for this game should be unexpected. Given they played in midweek, they'll likely be targeting a fast start and an early goal, which will allow them to sit deep, soak up pressure and hit on the counter, as they did to great effect on Tuesday.

They are big, physical and tough to break down, full of wily vets. The Alex, for whatever reason, were caught cold by Walsall's late managerial and subsequent tactical switch. There is no such excuse here for being unprepared at home for a 2nd time.

Incentive

A win here would be massive for the Alex for several reasons. One, it would knock Oldham back below them.

Two, because Grimsby and Chesterfield don't play this weekend, a win would see them end the day in the top 7. Ok, Oldham and Chesterfield would have a game in hand whilst Grimsby would have 2, but that's not as bad as it seems. Chesterfield's and 1 of Grimsby's games in hand are against each other, whilst the 2nd for Grimsby is away at Cambridge. Oldham's is a favourable trip to Barrow, but that's not for a few more weeks. Even with that, going into Good Friday in the top 7 would be a big thing for them.

3 points would also give them a big lift heading into the Easter weekend games, especially the trip to an Accrington side that are fizzling out it appears. And finally, a win would see them surpass their total points tally from last season, plus they'd only be 3 points shy of their play-off making tally after 40 games from 23-24. There are lots of little reasons to want to win this game, outside of the obvious big ones.

Confidence

Whilst Oldham will be full of confidence, the Alex's showing last week should see them go in to this game high on belief. In games where they are at home immediately following an away win, they are 3-1-1. Only Bromley and Bristol Rovers were the games they didn't win, with Accrington, Gillingham and Tranmere the times they did win. They have a relatively injury free squad and they definitely have the quality to hurt any team in this league. Now they need to go and show something similar to last week if they can.

Ref Watch

Simon Mather

Mather is back for his 2nd Alex game this season, having done the trip to Walsall on Boxing Day. He was poor on that day and Lee Bell felt he missed a penalty in the first half, but he's not one of the worst refs out there from memory.

2025-26 Record: 31 games(14 League One, 10 League Two, 3 National League, 3 League Cup, 1 FA Cup)

Last Game: Leyton Orient 2-0 Wycombe Wanderers, EFL League One, Saturday 21st March 2026, 3 yellows, 1 red

Crewe Alex Record: 2-2-3, 12 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

The Alex will be without Calum Agius, who is away on international duty. Conor Thomas has been ruled out with yet another problem, his 5th spell missing games through injury. Owen Lunt has now been officially declared as out for the rest of the season, disappointing news for a player who has had a good season up until his back injury.

With Shilow Tracey, it also sounds like it'll be a while before he's even considered for the squad, with Kenny Lunt saying he needs more U21s and then they'll see where he is.

Oldham

The Latics will be missing Tom Conlon and Michael Mellon as they recover from long term injuries. Also potentially absent are Jake Caprice, Reagan Ogle, Calum Kavanagh and Keiron Morris.

Team

The Alex will be forced into at least one change from last week with Agius away. I would imagine that will see Bell switch back to a 4-2-3-1. It will then be a question of who comes in for him and slots in at CM. It will probably be Holicek. He'll likely go in alongside Sanders. Then it'll be March wide left(not my ideal choice, but after last week, let's roll with it), Lankester central, O'Reilly right and Tezgel down the middle as the lone centre forward.

The nice thing is, that system could easily switch to a diamond midfield 4, with Sanders at the base and a trio of Holicek, Lankester and O'Reilly supporting a more tucked in March alongside Tezgel if needed. It should be pretty flexible.

The bench will be interesting as with Agius, Thomas and Lunt absent and Tracey not available for selection just yet, they are starting, a little bit at least, to eat into their depth. Finney returned to the bench last week and I'd imagine we'll see Luca Moore also come back in for this game.

Score Prediction

As much as I'd like to go positive with this one, Oldham arrive looking fairly unbeatable at the moment. And whilst the win last week was fun for the Alex, that was one decent performance after 3 average/poor ones. I'm hoping that win does inject some new belief and confidence into them, but for now I'm going to predict a defeat and hope to reverse jinx them.

Crewe Alexandra 0-1 Oldham Athletic