Crewe Alex v Tranmere Rovers 24/25 Preview - 3 points A$AP

Be honest, who had Tranmere being potentially taken over by an American rapper who's in a relationship with Rihanna? Well, apparently that's what's about to happen, with A$AP Rocky and others in a consortium being set to take an 80% stake in the Birkenhead club. It feels like more and more Americans are coming over and taking over EFL clubs. Could this be a sign of where the Alex's ownership model is set to turn? Anyway, there is a game to play, so here are my thoughts:

Home Advantage

When the Alex and Tranmere face each other, the home side almost always emerges unbeaten. The Alex have not lost to Tranmere at Gresty Road in the league since October 1999. The Alex haven't won at Prenton Park since 2000. That means there has been no away win in their matchups in 24 years. Incredible. The unbeaten run for the Alex in this fixture at Gresty Road stretches to 10 games, with them boasting an 8-2-0 run in that span. They need that run to continue.

Goals

Tranmere, much like last weeks home opponents Salford, are struggling somewhat. And much like Salford, their biggest issue seems to be their lack of goals. They've scored just 7 this season and 4 of them have come via Omari Patrick. They've had just 4 different scorers in the league this season. That's right, 4. The Alex by comparison(and without Bogle, Tabiner and Holicek netting yet) have 9. It's not a fluke either. They're 23rd in xG, 20th in shots on target per game and 24th in big chances.

Confusing

Tranmere's away record makes for some strange reading. 3-0 hammerings against Gillingham and Colchester suggest they're a poor side on the road. But then they did manage 2 wins(over the admittedly struggling Bromley and Carlisle) and did come back from both Vale Park and Stadium MK with draws, which not many sides will manage this season. They aren't to be underestimated.

Less Physical

One thing we don't have to worry about though is Tranmere coming and doing a Salford. They are 17th in fouls committed and they've only won 120, which puts them 20th. They're bottom for possession won in the opposition 3rd and aren't stacked with big physical bruisers. They might find a way to beat the Alex, but it won't be done in the style Salford tried to do it last week.

Make the Most Of It

The Alex are in a nice run of form at the moment. Whilst they aren't rattling off wins by multiple goals every week, they are digging in and grinding out results. They have now lost just 1 of their last 10 games and are 6-3-1 in that stretch. But, this game represents the last of what could be seen as softer opponents.

Because coming up in November, they have the teams currently sat 2nd, 3rd and 1st. That's a very difficult stretch. They would set themselves up nicely for not just those fixtures but the tricky home FA Cup tie against Dag & Red with a win here. Let's hope they can get it done.

Ref Watch

James Durkin

The Alex are getting another EFL rookie, with Durkin only stepping up to the EFL in the summer. He's never taken a Crewe or Tranmere game before, but one thing that does stand out is the sheer number of red cards he's dished out over the last few seasons. Since the 2019/20 season, he's produced 23 reds in 80 games. A 1 in 4 ratio is crazy high. Let's hope the Alex don't give him any grounds to make that 24.

2024/25 Record: 5 games(1 League One, 2 League Two, 1 National League, 1 EFL Trophy), 16 yellows, o reds

Last Game: Mansfield 0-1 Stevenage, EFL League One, 19th October 2024, 3 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: N/A

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

The Alex will be hoping Mickey Demetriou's cut shin is healed enough to allow him to return to the squad. Then all eyes will once again be on Chris Long to see if he can return, with Powell, Lankester and Hemmings still a few weeks away at least from returns. Is this a light at the end of the injury tunnel?

Tranmere

Rovers were missing Zak Bradshaw(LB), Josh Davison(ST), Kristian Dennis(ST) and Saidou Khan(CM) from their squad on Tuesday, but all things considered they seem to be in pretty decent shape injury wise.

Team

Man, what do you do if Demetriou is back and ready to go? Who drops out of the starting XI? I really don't want to see them put him back in and force Williams to LWB and Conway into midfield. But you can't really drop Knight-Lebel or Connolly either. Would it be sacrilegious to suggest only putting Mickey on the bench? Is it not fair to trust the back 3 that kept out Fleetwood to also do the same against a goal shy Tranmere team?

Obviously the keeper and wing backs keep their places, but it's in midfield and attack that you might have some decisions to make. Have Tabiner, Holicek and Sanders done enough to keep their places with Thomas back fit and Breckin and Lunt also pushing for starts? I'm not sure what trio is best at this point, as any combination could work. I'll go with Sanders, Tabiner and Breckin for now.

Upfront, I think Thibaut deserves another crack alongside Tracey, but I'm hoping that Bogle can come on for Shilow and not Adrien to give them a more effective front 2 in the 2nd half should they need a boost.

Score Prediction

I always get scared when I go into a game so confident of a win. But given how poor Tranmere look, I'm really hopeful the Alex can keep them out in defence and pick up their 7th clean sheet. Then at the other end, with more options than they've had previously, I'm also hoping they can find the quality neccessary to grab a goal or two and secure another win. So that's what I'll predict. Cue a 1-0 smash and grab away win!

Crewe Alexandra 2-0 Tranmere Rovers