Crewe Alexandra v Accrington Stanley 24/25 Preview - An Even Dozen

God it feels forever since the Alex were last at home. Well, I suppose it always feels that way after back to back Saturday away games. Still, those away games were productive, with 4 points collected and 2 clean sheets banked. Now they're back at home for back to back games over the next 4 days. If they can keep rolling and bring in another 4 points to end January, they'll be on 50 points and in a good spot. Up first is an Accrington side they've usually struggled against. Can they buck that trend or will they come unstuck? Here is my preview of the visit of Stanley:

Keep it Going

Lee Bell, for all his flaws, has maintained a strong home record since he took over. They are 26-12-12 in the league under him at Gresty Road. In that run, they have put together unbeaten stretches of 14 games and now, 11 games. The question now is, can they match that 14 game run they managed from March to October of 2023?

Well, the underlying numbers of this current run suggest that they've been full value for it. They've trailed for just 71 out of 990 minutes, have conceded 6 goals, scored 20 and have put up a superior xG by a margin of 6.7 xG. They've been worthy of their 7-4-0 run. And they have every chance to keep it going. Can they make it a full dozen home games unbeaten and go one closer to their last unbeaten home stretch?

Struggling

Accrington are struggling, no matter which way you slice it. This has been the case since John Doolan took over in March last year. They are 8-8-16 in his tenure, which is a 46 point pace, which itself is barely above relegation form. They're hemorrhaging goals and are struggling to put results together consistently.

Against bottom half teams at home this season, the Alex are 5-2-0 with 12 goals scored, 3 conceded and 5 of their 6 clean sheets recorded. Much like last week against Morecambe, if the Alex are serious about promotion, this is a game they need to be winning.

Favourable Run

The Alex are also being presented with a real opportunity to keep the home points rolling in over the coming weeks. In their next 5 home games, they face the sides in (Accrington)21st, (Wimbledon)4th, (Newport)20th, (Barrow)18th and (Fleetwood)13th. Whilst they'll be difficult games, Wimbledon especially, you can't help but feel if they put pedal to the metal, they can pick up a decent amount of points from this run of home games.

Dirty

One thing the Alex will have to be wary of is Accy's love of the dirtier side of the game. They top the table for the number of fouls committed per game at 15 and the most yellow cards at 74. Whilst they aren't a big physical side, they are going to come and disrupt the Alex, make it difficult and take tactical fouls and bookings. The Alex need to be wise to these things and take steps to avoid getting dragged into playing Accrington's game.

Ref Watch

Alex Chilowicz

Chilowicz is back for a 2nd time this season after he took charge of the home game with Swindon from earlier in the season. This will only be his 2nd Crewe game after that Swindon game and thankfully, he wasn't atrocious in that game back in August.

2024/25 Record: 22 games(12 League One, 5 League Two, 3 FA Cup, 2 League Cup), 72 yellows, 5 reds

Last Game: Mansfield Town 0-2 Wigan Athletic, 14th January 2025, FA Cup, 2 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 0-1-0, 2 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

Jack Lankester's season looks done, so we know he's out. James Connolly, Nathan Robinson and Conor Thomas remain sidelined, but does Kane Hemmings get back onto the bench after completing a week of training, despite not featuring for the U21s against Burnley earlier in the week?

Accrington Stanley

Zack Awe, Dara Costelloe and Seamus Conneely all missed their defeat against Notts County, but they have new signings Benn Ward, Charlie Caton and Charlie Brown in the squad.

Team

The team selection is going to be a little more interesting this week as there are a couple of choices to be made. We'll start with the easy choices. The keeper and back 5 from Morecambe, barring any new concerns, will start again. But then you have some decisions to make in midfield and upfront.

For me, Powell has to return in midfield alongside Sanders. We saw how well those 2 alongside a younger more energetic third option did against Bromley, so to me, seeing Tabiner and Holicek start together again makes little sense. As to who starts between Tabiner and Holicek, it's a coin flip after a pair of fairly mediocre last 2 games from both of them. I'll go with Holicek, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Bell go with Tabiner.

Up front, in the game of striker musical chairs, I think the music might stop with Bogle and Long being the guys in line to start. Bogle made a big impact against Morecambe and Long has 2 goals in his last 4 appearances. With Tracey's goalless streak at 10, Lankester out injured and Hemmings only just returning to contention, I don't see what other choice you have.

The bench will be fascinating as I mentioned earlier. Does Hemmings make the bench? Lankester's injury might force that decision, although I suppose Thibaut could come back in for the first time since the the start of December. O'Riordan will come in of course, so does Billington make way? There will be a couple of disappointed players who don't make the 18 I think.

Score Prediction

Another struggler. At home. Yes, that screams banana skin, but if I'm not predicting a win here, I probably never will. There is no reason they shouldn't be winning this game and to be honest, winning it well. Obviously I'll take any sort of win, but a multi goal win to really build the confidence ahead of the promotion 6 pointer on Tuesday would be nice too.

Crewe Alexandra 2-0 Accrington Stanley