Crewe Alexandra v AFC Wimbledon 24/25 Preview - Fork in the Road

It's pretty mad to think we've reached the end of January and this is the first scheduled home league game the Alex will have played on a Tuesday in the league. In fact, it's only their 2nd Tuesday 7:45pm league kick off of the season, after their trip to Wimbledon in September was postponed and their trip to Carlisle was moved to a Saturday. I hope they've remembered how to prepare for a midweek kick off, as for some of them it'll be only their second of the season. Here is my preview of the Wombles visit to Gresty Road:

Fork in the Road

The Alex haven't lost back to back home games since the end of last season. But unless we see a dramatic, and I mean dramatic, improvement on what we've seen in their last 3 games, that's what could very well happen in this one. Wimbledon are a good team and will be very hard to break down, as we'll discuss shortly. A 2nd defeat in a row, their first back to back since the start of the season, would raise significant question marks over the Alex's promotion credentials. A win however wipes away the disappointment on Saturday and would be a huge confidence boost for the whole team heading into February. This is a pivotal game.

Stingy

However, by far the biggest concern I have is the Alex's suddenly blunt looking attack against the side with the best defensive record in the division in Wimbledon's. The Dons have the joint most clean sheets with 12, have conceded the fewest goals by a margin of 3 and have the best xGA at just 22.2.

To be fair, Wimbledon are having issues at the other end themselves. Outside of Matty Stevens, nobody in their team has more thsan3 goals and only 2 players have more than 2 assists. So creating chances is a struggle for them. The Alex are similar, with a well functioning defence but stuttering attack. I can't see this one being full of goals.

Contrast

Like a few teams, Wimbledon are a very different proposition away from home. Whilst at home, they rattle off wins and score plenty of goals, on the road things aren't quite as good. Whilst they do have 5 wins, they also have 5 losses. Only 13 goals scored, summed up by them managing just 6 shots and 1 on target at MK on Saturday, shows that they are having issues on the road. I hope that continues in this one.

Promotion Contender

The Alex are going to have to really adjust their mindset for this one. This will be the first time they've faced a side in the top 7 since Port Vale away at the end of November. It'll be the first time at home since Notts County the week before that Vale game. It's crazy to think it's been 9 games since they faced a fellow top 7 side. The worry I have is they won't be fully geared up to face a good opponent, especially after the limp defeat on Saturday. I hope that's not the case and Bell has them ready for such a big challenge.

Lift themselves?

An interesting wrinkle to this game is that Wimbledon are coming off the back of their grudge match against MK on Saturday. Whilst they face each other a lot more these days, so the novelty is wearing off, I still sense a lot of hatred from Wimbledon fans towards MK and rightly so. But how will they lift themselves for this one so soon after playing in such a high intensity game against such a hated opponent?

Ref Watch

Lewis Smith

Smith has only done 3 Crewe games, but they've all been dramatic ones. He's done the away draws against Harrogate(22-23), Wimbledon(23-24) and Colchester(23-24), all of which were late Alex comebacks. I hope things aren't quite that dramatic a 4th time.

2024/25 Record: 28 games(4 Premier League, 12 Championship, 6 League One, 1 League Two, 1 FA Cup, 4 League Cup), 97 yellows, 3 reds

Last Game: Coventry City 1-0 Bristol City, Saturday 18th January 2025, EFL Championship

Crewe Alex Record: 0-3-0, 5 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Crewe Alex

It doesn't seem like the Alex have any fresh concerns outside of Lankester, Thomas and Connolly.

Wimbledon

The Dons will be missing a few players. Absent from their squad on Saturday were John-Joe O'Toole, Callum Maycock, James Ball and Riley Harbottle. Although they are healthier than they were a few weeks ago.

Team

Hmm. Decisions to be made all over the pitch you'd imagine. Given how poor everyone was on Saturday, you could make the case for a lot of them to be dropped. I doubt many of them will be. I doubt it happens, but I'm starting O'Riordan at the back ahead of Zac Williams. Williams has been meh for a while now and he can absolutely go on the bench for a game. Mickey shifts to LCB, O'Riordan goes into the middle and Knight-Lebel stays at RCB. Cooney and Conway stay at wing back.

In midfield, yikes. What do you do there? Sanders starts again, but Powell doesn't. Can you start Tabiner and Holicek though? Probably not in either case. But if they don't, who does? Lunt? It's a big concern that their engine room is in such a poor state. Does a formation change make sense to try and get some more creativity into the team?

It's not ideal and not what I want to do, but I'll start Tabiner alongside Sanders and bring in Tracey on the RW, move Long to the LW and go with Bogle down the middle once again. Go 3-4-3, see if a slightly different formation can improve things.

Score Prediction

I'm not feeling confident any more. To be honest, I'd take a draw at this point. I just worry where the goals are coming from, especially with the main creators in the team being off their game at the moment. I'd love a narrow 1-0 win, that would be huge for the confidence. But as it is, I'll go for another bore draw.

Crewe Alexandra 0-0 AFC Wimbledon