Fleetwood Town v Crewe Alex 24/25 Preview - Battered Cod

Ah, a lovely midweek trip to the seaside. Sort of. Yes, the Alex make the relatively short trip up the M6 and across to the north west coast to face Fleetwood. This will be my first trip to this ground and I have a hot take: I quite like Highbury, albeit as someone who hasn't been in the ground personally. The stands look close to the pitch, they are each different and the away end is a classic terrace, which I'm a big fan of. I'm hoping to enjoy my trip to ground number 72/92. Here is my preview of the game:

Home Struggles

Fleetwood are an odd team. They can go from smashing Walsall 6-2 to struggling to break down Bromley. Their home form is particularly baffling. They've won just one game at Highbury, that being the narrow opening day win over Grimsby. Since then they've had a respectable 0-0 draw with Gillingham, but 2 relatively poor draws against Morecambe and Bromley. It's hard to know what to make of them and what version of them the Alex will get tomorrow evening.

All or Nothing

Fleetwood are also a strange team in the sense that they're either great in front of goal, or they're not. They've scored 88% of their goals in 50% of their matches. They are either the best attack in the division, or they struggle to get anything going, depending on how they're feeling in any given games. The same goes for them in defence. They've conceded 1 or fewer in 5 of their games, but 2 or more in the other 5. So they're equally capable of keeping clean sheets or letting in multiple goals.

That also underscores another issue they have. When they are on song, they are hard to stop. 2-0 leads over Notts County, Carlisle and Morecambe show that. But, they let the lead slip in all 3 of those games. At home, as I mentioned, they've found getting ahead and putting teams to bed difficult. That is something the Alex can take advantage of.

Competitive

It's funny, but through 5 games, the Alex have more away points this season(7) than they did last season(6). This though will be another tough test of their abilities against a side that looks likely be in the mix for the top 7. This game also marks the 2nd game of a very tough away stretch against teams up near the top of the table, starting with Doncaster(2nd), continuing with this game and then moving on to Walsall(3rd) and Port Vale(1st) in November. Oh and Wimbledon once that game is rearranged. If they can emerge from this 4 game stretch with somewhere in the region of 5-6 points, that will underline their promotion credentials and it'll have seen them tick off a few of the better teams away from home before Christmas.

Quality

The Alex's biggest battle will be in midfield. Between Danny Mayor, Elliott Bonds, Brandon Wiredu, Matty Virtue, MacKenzie Hunt and Mark Helm, they have one of the best midfield units in the division. Keep them quiet and the Alex have a chance of getting a result, but then they have the dangerous front duo of Ryan Graydon and Ronan Coughlan to contend with.

Misleading Record

It's easy to look at the Alex's record against Fleetwood(2-2-6) and think they struggle to beat them. But when you look at their 8 league meetings, 6 of them came in seasons when the Alex finished near the bottom of the table. They played in 14-15, 15-16 and 21-22, 1 season where they narrowly avoided relegation and 2 where they didn't.

Hopefully with the Alex looking competitive this season, they can start to redress the balance between the 2 teams.

Ref Watch

Seb Stockbridge

Oh goody, another clown fresh off Mr Gill's shocker on Saturday. This is the same ref that sent off Ryan Cooney against Wrexham last season, only for the decision to be overturned. That being said though, he didn't have many bad games before said disaster, so hopefully it was a one off.

2024/25 Record: 10 games(5 League One, 3 League Two, 2 League Cup), 41 yellows, 1 red

Last Game: Chesterfield 2-2 Walsall, EFL League Two, 5th October 2024

Crewe Alex Record: 4-4-8, 21 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Fleetwood Town

The Cod will likely be without defenders Zac Medley, James Bolton and Harrison Holgate. Also potentially out are attackers Tommy Lonergan and Phoenix Patterson, although they might be selection omissions, rather than injuries.

Crewe Alex

Will we see Chris Long return? Doubtful. What about Joel Tabiner's ankle issue? How serious is that? And what forced Kian Breckin off at half time on Saturday? Lankester, Powell and Hemmings obviously remain out, so it'll be mostly the same squad from Saturday that is available to Bell, but those question marks could see them a few options shorter than usual.

Team

As a kick off, you have to consider starting Thibaut. The Alex had no physical presence upfront against Doncaster or Salford and it's severely limiting their ability to generate attacks. So, I'd start Thibaut alongside Tracey. Then if Breckin or Tabiner can't go, you move Holicek back into midfield. If either can, one of those 2 starts in midfield instead of Holicek.

I'd also be tempted to start Thomas, but the issue you have is, neither he nor Sanders can likely give you 90 minutes, so you'd have to take both off and with potentially only Owen Lunt as back up, that's a problem. If Breckin and/or Tabiner are fit, I'd start Thomas with Sanders and one of them.

Then I'd move Conway back to LWB, Williams back to LCB and maybe drop Connolly. It's harsh on Connolly, as I don't think he did much wrong on Saturday, but if it means getting square pegs into square holes, so be it.

Score Prediction

I can't call this one. Fleetwood are a tough side who don't lose very often, only twice so far this season in fact. And both of those defeats came to promotion contenders. Can the Alex spring a surprise result and snatch a win? Without knowing who will be available and who won't, I can't with any confidence predict a win. So as it goes, I'll sit in the middle and say it'll be their 3rd straight draw.

Fleetwood Town 1-1 Crewe Alexandra