Grimsby Town v Crewe Alex 24/25 Preview - The Dave Artell Experience

Any more storms due this weekend? No? Thank goodness. It looks like it'll be a much calmer experience in Cleethorpes weather wise. Cold, but no hurricane force winds or driving rain. I'll take that all day. This will be my first visit to Blundell Park since 2017. I suspect it hasn't improved much. Here's hoping the team liven up the afternoon with a performance and result. This is my preview of the Alex's visit to Grimsby:

The Dave Artell Experience

Grimsby are having a rollercoaster of a season under Dave Artell. But to be fair, it's no different than what the Alex went through in their first 2 years under him in 17-18 and 18-19. The Mariners are hilariously up and down, winning one week and losing the next. They have won 10 games, one of only 3 sides to do that so far this season. But they've also lost 8 games, the most of any side in the top 9. They are a very boom or bust team. Hopefully they'll be more bust than boom in this game.

Home Form

Grimsby's home form is baffling. They won 5-2 against a likely tired Accrington side last time out at Blundell Park, but in other games against fellow top 7 opponents they've lost 0-3 v Doncaster, 1-4 v Walsall and 1-3 v MK Dons. They have lost 5 games at home, the joint 2nd most. They have the 2nd leakiest defence, with 18 conceded.

If the Alex want to consider themselves worthy to be amongst those teams, then this is the kind of game they need to picking up a win from, like the aforementioned teams were able to do.

End the Run

The Alex's recent run against Grimsby has been horrendous. I mentioned this the last couple of times they've played them and it hasn't gotten better. They've lost 5 straight games by a 14-1 margin. At Blundell Park, it's a run of 1-0-5 with a 11-3 margin. It's funny how the scheduling works out, given they travelled to Grimsby on December 9th 2023 last season. A year and 5 days later, they make the trip this season. Let's hope for better fortunes this time around.

Goalscoring

The Alex will head into this game in mixed goalscoring form. The good news is they are on a 16 game scoring run and rank 12th in xG. The bad news is, they have scored twice in an away game just once all season and that was back in August against Bromley. Don't get me wrong, they've been remarkably consistent since then, with 1 goal scored in each of their last 7 trips. But they need to try and find a different level going forward, as scoring 1 per game is only going to carry them so far.

Tricky Pitch

What will make this game more challenging is Blundell Park. Cold, blustery and an uneven bobbly surface will likely reduce the amount of football that can be played and turn it into a grind. The Alex up until recently showed they were fine with grinding out wins, but they now have 1 win in their last 5 games. Ok, the other 4 are draws. But it feels like a defeat is closer than a win right now unless they up their performance levels. How they cope on a tricky surface will go a long way towards deciding if that run of draws comes to an end with a win or a defeat.

Ref Watch

James Durkin

We have a 2nd time ref for the first time this season. Durkin is back after taking charge of the Alex's 3-1 win at home to Tranmere back in October. That being said, he's still a rookie with a 1 in 4 red card to game ratio in his career. And given 3 out of the last 4 Alex league games have involved a red card(1 against, 2 for), I hope they don't give him an option to increase his ratio.

2024/25 Record: 12 games(2 League One, 5 League Two, 1 FA Cup, 1 National League, 3 EFL Trophy), 45 yellows, o reds

Last Game: Exeter City 2-2 Wycombe Wanderers, EFL League One, 3rd December 2024, 1 yellow

Crewe Alex Record: 1-0-0, 6 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Grimsby Town

Grimsby last week were without Matty Carson, Charles Vernam, Rekeil Pyke, Tyrell Warren and Donovan Wilson. It doesn't look on current evidence that any of them will be missed that much.

Crewe Alex

The game of forward whack-a-mole continues. No sooner do they welcome back an attacker in Chris Long, but they say goodbye to another in Shilow Tracey, who misses this game after his 5th yellow card last week. There was no update provided by Kenny Lunt on the status of Conor Thomas and Tom Booth, so we don't know if either will be fit for this game or not. We'll just have to hope there are no fresh concerns.

Team

Decisions, decisions. Bell talked about how unhappy he was with the performance last week against Bradford. Even if you want to excuse it by blaming Storm Darragh, it follows on from the similarly poor performance against Carlisle. For me, after 2 poor games in a row, changes should be in the offing.

So, let's start with who keeps their places. For me, that's Marschall(GK), Demetriou(CB), Williams(LCB), Cooney(RWB), Sanders(CM), Conway(LWB), Lankester(ST) and Bogle(ST). That leaves the RCB and 2 CM positions up for grabs. I'm sorry, but despite how solid Connolly has been, I'm once again calling for Knight-Lebel to start. He's just a better player and far more comfortable in possession, which was again evident on Tuesday with another shaky Connolly performance.

In midfield, I want to see Powell start, but after him playing 90 minutes at Wrexham, he clearly won't. So, it'll likely be Holicek and Tabiner again alongside Sanders, which isn't ideal at this point, but what can you do?

The bench got more complicated with the news that Booth missed Tuesday's game with a knock. Does Lenarcik go on the bench given he's likely to play at Luton for the U18s the night before? Or do they go with 7 outfielders and take the risk? They'll have options though. Connolly, Finney, Billington, Lunt, Breckin, Powell, Long, Thibaut and Roberts are all available, so picking 6/7 from those 9 will be tough.

Score Prediction

Grimsby are flying after 2 heavy wins and will be full confidence, whilst the Alex are probably less so given they've struggled in the last few games. I'm hoping after Bell's disgruntled post match assessment last weekend, he'll send them out with a bit of a rocket up their arses in this one. I'll keep the faith and say they grab an all import win as they head into the festive games.

Grimsby Town 1-2 Crewe Alexandra