Newport County v Crewe Alex 24/25 Preview - Fantastic Five

Back on the road again and this time, I will be able to get to my 2nd away game of the season. The Alex will head south to Newport looking to keep their good run going end September either unbeaten, or with their 4th win of the month. In their way are a Newport team who after a solid opening few games have started to struggle in recent weeks. Can the Alex capitalise on that or will their good run come to an end in South Wales? Here is my preview of the game:

Leaky

I said this about Accrington in the last away game, but the Alex are once again coming up against a porous defence. Newport have conceded 15 goals, the 2nd most in the division behind Accrington. What's more, it's a deserved tally, as they sit 24th in xG against with 12.6. They are struggling at the back and the Alex have a great chance to compound those woes.

5 in a row

Alex teams have proven themselves capable of winning 4 games in a row. They did it twice last season for example. But they haven't won 5 in a row since the 1994-95 season when they did it twice, once to start the season and once again between early January and mid-February. So, they have the chance to match some almost 30 year history if they can grab 3 points in this one.

Personal History

This is shaping up to be a game where both sides have players wanting to prove something against their former teams. On the Alex's side, Mickey Demetriou is obviously revered by Newport, so I doubt he wants to stick one in on them, but I think if Bogle can get himself fit, he will after an up and down 2 years there.

On the other side there is Courtney Baker-Richardson, who might feel slighted by the Alex's management for a deal he felt he couldn't accept this summer and against some fans for criticism he received. I have no doubt he'll be desperate to score and give it back to his former club. These factors will add a level of spice to this game.

Away Form

I keep mentioning this, because it keeps being a factor. The Alex are 2-0-1 so far this season away from home, which adds to their 8-9-6 record from last season. In 2024, they are 7-4-3 in away fixtures, with their only defeats being to teams who finished 4th and 5th last season and who are currently 1st this season.

Whilst I really enjoyed the performance last week, I'll still say that Bell feels more comfortable on the road, where he can revert to his baser instinct, which is to focus on defensive solidity and play more of a counter attacking and set piece game. This being away from home should suit him down to the ground.

Ref Watch

Alan Young

Here comes another referee with not a great reputation amongst Alex fans. Young was the ref that gave the laughable penalty for the push by Nevitt on George Ray in the Barrow home game last season. He also sent off Olly Lancashire in the 1-0 win over Walsall 19/20.

He's an odd ref in the sense that he's only reffed 16 games last season and only 2 this season, both of them National League games. Does that point to injuries, work commitments or poor performance I wonder?

2024/25 Record: 2 games(2 National League), 13 yellows

Last Game: Braintree 1-0 Halifax Town, 24th September 2024, National League, 6 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 1-0-3, 7 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Newport

Newport are likely down to the bare bones in certain spots. Shane McLoughlin, Jamie Miley, Kai Whitmore and Hamzad Kargbo are missing, whilst James Clarke, Aaron Wildig and Michael Spellman are close to returns, but might also miss out. For a team with a small squad, that's a lot of absences.

Crewe Alex

Jack Powell is inching closer to a return, whilst Chris Long also doesn't seem far off, but neither will be involved here obviously. The only other fitness doubt is Omar Bogle, who Bell was unsurprisingly coy about. I'm sure Bogle would love to face his former team, but Bell said he wouldn't put the striker in the squad if he wasn't ready. We'll see come 2pm on Saturday.

Team

Normally when people say "never change a winning team" I say I disagree. I say you name the team you think gives you the best chance of winning the game. BUT, in this instance, barring any new injuries or absences, there are no grounds for changing anyone that started last week against Harrogate, so you go with the same again.

What I'm hoping he doesn't do is try to get cute and try to switch things because this is an away game, like maybe bringing in Sanders and dropping Tracey for example. It's rare you get the opportunity to name unchanged teams, so he should make full use of it.

Score Prediction

I can't not be confident after 4 straight wins and 13 points from a possible 15. Newport will be a tough opponent no doubt and they'll make things very difficult for the Alex, but after such a good run of form, they have to be hoping for a 5th straight win. So that's what I'll predict.

Newport County 1-2 Crewe Alex