Reviewing my Crewe Alex & League Two Predictions

Back in early August, before the 23-24 season began, I made a number of predictions about Crewe Alex and what I thought would happen to them this season. I also made a number of L2 predictions, including where each team would finish in the table and a number of things I thought would happen. So this article today is going to review both to see what I got wrong and what I got right. All these predictions are league only.

Crewe Alex Predictions

Table Finish - 15th

Needless to say they dramatically overachieved what I thought and I was more optimistic than the pundits. In that context, the Alex enjoyed a fantastic season, beyond the dreams of even the most wildly positive Crewe fan.

Player of the Season - Joel Tabiner

Whilst he was never in the running for this award, I wonder if he could have been had he stayed fit. I expected big things from him this season, but his unfortunate foot and then thigh injury ruined what could have been a good season for him. He'll need a strong 24-25 to make up for what he couldn't contribute this season.

Breakthrough Player of the Season - Matus Holicek

Up until December, I'd say this award was very much up for grabs and had he not had his groin injury, he could have been in the running. But the emergence of Lewis Billington and Tom Booth, coupled with Holicek finding it tough since coming back into the first team, took him out of contention.

Top Goalscorer - Courtney Baker-Richardson

This was looking likely up until January and February, but then Nevitt surpassed him and never looked back. CBR struggled in the 2nd half of the season, only managing 1 goal in his last 19 appearances. This was never going to hit from February onwards.

Most Assists - Joel Tabiner

Again, you can see my faith in Tabiner to have a great season. Had he stayed injury free, I think he could well have won this award, given he had 4 by the time he got injured and Adebisi finished top with just 7.

Most Yellows - Conor Thomas

Another I missed on due to injuries. Thomas got 9 yellows in just 24 starts, only 3 behind Nevitt, who finished with 12. Had Thomas played 10 more games, he would have likely won this. I don't feel bad about this prediction.

Connor O'Riordan and Mickey Demetriou will score 8 or more goals this season

I should have gone higher! They ended up with 11 between them, 3 for O'Riordan and 8 for Demetriou. Had O'Riordan stayed, I don't think it's unfair to say they could have gotten close to 15 between them. But I nailed this one.

Crewe will be in the top 5 for penalty awards

Hard to judge this one. They got 6 penalties, which saw them finish joint 5th technically. But 7 teams got more than them, so this one counts as a miss. A near miss, but a miss.

2 players will score over 10 goals

I feel completely cheated by this. Nevitt hit 10 in late January. At that stage, both CBR and Long had 9 and I needed 1 of them to get one more for this to hit. But due to injuries and a loss of form, neither was able to, meaning this one fell short. Fuming.

The Alex will not occupy the top 7 or bottom 2 this season

This was a big miss. I thought they were in for a dull mid-table season where they didn't threaten at the top or bottom. Safe to say that never happened, given they rose into the top 7 in mid-September and only left it briefly in late December.

The Alex will score more and concede less than last season

I anticipated better records for goals scored and conceded. I got half of that right. They shot up from 48 goals scored last season to 69 this season(nice). However, at the other end they had too many games where they looked like a leaky sieve and that saw them concede 65 goals, 6 more than last season. It was close(ish), but this one fell short.

5 or more players will start 40 or more games

This one never came close as I got too ambitious. To be fair, Demetriou and Adebisi easily hit the tally and Offord and Powell would have done had they not picked up freak injuries I think. Potentially add Tabiner into that mix. But alas, those are coulda, woulda, shoulda moments. A wide miss.

Elliott Nevitt will scored over 5 goals

Easily my best prediction, although I went far too low. He smashed that tally, hitting 16 in the end, beyond what even I hoped was possible. but, I put my faith in him and he more than repaid it.

Callum Agius will be the first 2nd year scholar to appear this season

This one hit, as he came on against Barrow before Christmas. He made 2 more short sub appearances, which isn't as many as I'd have hoped, but it's a start. He also was nominated for the L2 apprentice of the season at the EFL awards and won the Alex's scholar of the year award, a reward for a fantastic season for both the U18s and U21s. Hopefully we see big things from him next season.

The Alex will score 5 in a game

For the 2nd season in a row, they failed to do so. But they came pretty close, scoring 4 goals 3 times. They looked likely to do it early in the season, but after November, they never came close.

League Two Table Predictions

Here are my table predictions with their actual finish in brackets.

1st(2nd) - Wrexham (close, won promotion and finished 2nd, 1 spot off what I said. Happy about that)

2nd(1st) - Stockport (very close, won the title, only 1 off where they finished. Another solid shout)

3rd(14th) - Notts County(who saw that implosion coming? Their defence is the worst in the league. They have a big summer ahead)

4th(4th) - MK Dons(said 4th, finished 4th. Nailed it)

5th(12th) - Gillingham(Their quest for goals never got solved. Finished a very disappointing mid-table)

6th(3rd) - Mansfield(Backed them for the POs when plenty of others didn't. Finally got over the hump and went up automatically, but not far off what I thought)

7th(20th) - Salford(A disaster of a season where they clearly cut back on investment and finished 20th)

8th(5th) - Doncaster(Looked like a shocking prediction in January, turned out I went too low in the end, haha)

9th(9th) - Bradford(Another that looked very wrong a few months ago, but one that I nailed by the end of the season. Go figure)

10th(16th) - Tranmere(Had they appointed Adkins from the start of the season, they might well have ended up here, but their inconsistency killed them. Only 6 spots off)

11th(19th) - Swindon(A terrible season where off field issues impacted their results. Never came close to the top half after a woeful 2nd half to the season)

12th(21st) - Grimsby(We expected them to kick on, but it was a season of struggle for them until the end of the season when Dave Artell turned it around)

13th(10th) - Wimbledon(Slightly better than I thought, but I'll accept 3 spots difference all day)

14th(8th) - Barrow(Did better than I thought but choked a play-off spot at the last moment They'll be gutted with how their season ended)

15th(6th) - Crewe(Way off!)

16th(11th) - Walsall(An improvement on 22-23, but still couldn't crack the top 7)

17th(22nd) - Colchester(Did their usual trick of being terrible for 75% of the season and then finally improving under the Cowleys. Will next season be any different for them?)

18th(13th) - Harrogate(Did better than I expected. How long can they keep punching above their weight?)

19th(23rd) - Sutton(Didn't expect them to fall off a cliff quite so hard. Ultimately they lost too many key players and never recovered. Best of luck to them in the conference)

20th(17th) - Accrington(Dealt with a metric ton of injuries and the sacking of John Coleman well, but their form is a concern. I fear for them next season)

21st(18th) - Newport(For the majority of the season, they were solid in mid-table. However, their slide at the end of the season and potential loss of more key players is a big concern)

22nd(24th) - Forest Green(Anyone could see their struggles a mile away. They were dreadful and rightfully relegated. They won't be missed)

23rd(7th) - Crawley(Possibly a better story than Crewe, they were the shock of the season. Scott Lindsey worked wonders with a rag tag group to get them into the play-offs)

24th(15th) - Morecambe(Given everything that has happened to them on and off the field, I think they should be proud of their mid-table finish. They are in for a turbulent summer though)

Total difference in spots: 134

Average: 5.58

L2 General Predictions

There will be at least 5 '20 goal' scorers this season

Nailed it. Langstaff, Mullin, Smith, Evans, Ironside, Olafe and Keilor-Dunn all hit that mark with ease.

There will be less than 10 in season sackings

Yep, a miss. To be fair, only 11 were classified as sackings, with 2 more being mutual consent. So I wasn't a million miles away.

We will see over 2.6 goals per game

This was a hit. We finished the season with 2.98 per match, well above the tally I thought it would be.

Wrexham will be selected for live Sky coverage at least 3 times

In the end, it was only once. Mansfield, Notts County and a couple of others made multiple appearances, but Wrexham only got 1 league broadcast. Shocking.

League Two's top scorer will not be Andy Cook, Paul Mullin, Macauley Langstaff or David McGoldrick

Well, McGoldrick and Cook never came close, but in the end this was a big miss. Mullin finished 2nd with 24 after a slow start and Langstaff won the golden boot with 28. Not even close with this one.

There will be at least one player with 15 yellow cards this season

I'm counting this one. Jay Williams of Crawley picked up 15 separate yellow cards and whilst one was a 2nd yellow and then red, it still counts in my book.

Johnnie Jackson, Ian Dawes and Mat Sadler will be the first 3 managerial departures

I nailed the Dawes departure, but the other 2 kept their jobs until the end of the season after better than expected seasons from both. So yeah, not close.

The league winners will hit 92 points or more

It wasn't looking likely back in March, but Stockport turned on the gas to finish the season strong and end with 92 points exactly. So this one I got spot on.

There will be a double-double player for goals and assists

Alex Gilbey, Dan Crowley and Isaac Hutchinson, come on down. All 3 players finished the season with over 10 goals and over 10 assists, making this a well called hit.

At least 2 sides will get 10 penalty awards

Talk about a close shave. It was looking like a miss on this one until the final day. Stockport went into the weekend on 10, but I needed 1 more side to hit and Accrington did, getting 2 penalties to take their total from 9 to 11. A late, late hit.

Conclusion

So, 3/15 on my Crewe Alex predictions, but a decent hit rate on my L2 table and general L2 predictions, with a 6/10 on the general predictions and an average of 5.58 spots out on the table predictions. The only lower league pundits I did worse than were Tom Williams and OffTheLine, who got 130 and 129 spots difference respectively. I did better than Gab Sutton, HCFootball01, The Real EFL, NTT20 and The 92Bible. So overall I can feel happy about how I did. I can't wait to do it all again next season and get some horrifically wrong as usual.