Rotherham United v Crewe Alex 24/25 League Cup Preview - Changes

I wasn't planning on doing a preview for this game as I am unable to attend it in person. However, with the knowledge that it will be streamed live on Sky Sports, that means I'll have the opportunity to watch it after all. They face a tricky trip to one of the League One promotion favourites in Rotherham, only their third ever visit to the New York Stadium since it was opened. Can they make it to the 2nd round, or is their League Cup journey about to come to an instant end? Here is my preview of the game:

Done it Before

The Alex have a history of turning over North East based teams on the road in the last decade or so in this competition. In the last 10 years, they've beaten Barnsley, Sheff Utd, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool and Sunderland away from home. Doing so against Rotherham wouldn't be a total shock.

Rotation

Both sides are likely to rotate for this game. I'll go into the Alex's possible moves later on, but Rotherham are likely to make changes for this game I'd have thought. They had an underwhelming start to the season down at Exeter and Steve Evans will likely want to see a reaction from his players tomorrow night. But, I also imagine he'll want to give some of his senior players the night off and bring in some fringe players who'll want to impress.

Penalties Needed

I'd say there is a fair chance that this one ends level and we need penalties to separate them. In his last 10 games in this competition with Gillingham and Stevenage, Steve Evans has gone 3-7-1. His wins have been against Southend, Reading and Peterborough, with only one of his games being a defeat inside 90 minutes.

Bell on the other hand is technically 0-2-0, with both of the Alex's games last season going to penalties. So bet on this one maybe needing spot kicks once again.

Penalties

And speaking of spot kicks, it'll be interesting to compare records. Bell is 2-1 in competitive games in just 1 full season with the Alex, winning the shoot out at Sunderland and Doncaster, but losing the one at Port Vale. The Alex went 5 for 5, 4 for 5 and 0 for 4 across those 3 games as well bizarrely, that Port Vale game being the real outlier. That's 9 for 14 a 64% rate. Their opponents in those games have gone 8 for 12, which is 66%.

Steve Evans however has mixed record, winning 3 and losing 4 of his last 7 penalty shoot outs in the league cup alone. His sides don't often miss, with them boasting a 83%(31 of 37). But, whilst his outfielders often score their penalties, his keepers don't save many either. Their opponents have an 89%(35 of 39) conversion rate.

All this is to say that if this game does go to penalties, then I'd say it's a dead heat to see who comes out on top.

Ref Watch

Scott Oldham

This can't be a coincidence can it? The same ref that was involved in their cup games with Sunderland and Derby, AND their PO 2nd leg win over Doncaster? The same ref for when they won the shoot-outs against Sunderland and Doncaster? Well, that's a stroke of fortune isn't it. Let's hope that continues.

2024/25 Record: 0-1-0(1 League Two), 5 yellows

Last Game: Chesterfield 1-1 Swindon Town, 9th August 2024, 5 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 6-2-4, 12 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Rotherham

The Millers will be without long term absentee Andre Green, but the rest of their squad seems in decent health, even if Evans reported a few of them carrying knocks. It should give him the flexibility to rotate if they wish.

Crewe Alex

Lee Bell said after the game on Saturday that Chris Long won't be involved in this game, so as to give him a full week of training ahead of the Chesterfield game, which I do agree with. That though will open the door for someone else to come in to the squad. Robinson and Powell remain out, as I suspect does Booth, Finney and Bogle. So the Alex will be a little light on options.

Team

I want to see changes to both the personnel and system. I want to see them try a 3-4-2-1 formation. Pack the middle of the pitch. I'd be switching to a back 3 and starting Connolly, Demetriou and Williams from right to left.

In midfield I'm starting Sanders and Tabiner, with Thomas and his managed calves dropping to the bench. At wing back, I'm starting Lewis Billington on the right and Max Conway on the left. Then in the 2 number 10 spots, I'm starting Holicek and Lankester, with Hemmings continuing up front.

On the bench you'd be left with Lenarcik, Cooney, Knight-Lebel, Thomas, Tracey, Agius, Lunt, Sant and Roberts. A few options to choose from.

Score Prediction

I rarely give out cup score predictions, as they throw up some wonky results. The main thing I'm hoping for here is a performance to generate a bit of confidence and positivity. A goal would be nice too. As it stands, I'll go with a comfy home with for the Millers.

Rotherham 3-1 Crewe Alex