Swindon Town v Crewe Alex 24/25 Preview - The Rockin Robins

I don't think there has been a more turbulent club in the lower 2 divisions than Swindon. They've gone through several owners and are on their 11th manager since 2015. They are just a club which desperately needs stability, but currently are a million miles off that. The Alex travel there looking to start their 2025 road campaign off in a positive way. Can they bring the 3 points back home or will the Robins deny them, much like they denied them the title in 2019-20? Here is my preview of the game:

Entertaining Ollie

Ian Holloway has long since lost his effectiveness as a manager. He's almost a parody of himself at the moment, managing games from the stands before he officially took charge, getting into spats with fans, calling protests "a load of nonsense". It's been a whirlwind first 2 months in charge for him. Watch out for his antics on the touchline tomorrow, they might be more interesting than the actual game.

On the Up?

That being said, are Swindon starting to turn a corner under him? It seems almost unthinkable given what I just said about Holloway, but the evidence is there. They've won their last 3 at home and have scored 9 in the process. In Harry Smith, they have one of the better strikers in the division and in the supporting cast of Drinan, Glatzel, Wright, Tshimanga and Clarke, they have plenty of capable scorers. This won't be an easy game for the Alex, despite the Robins' lowly position in the table.

Goals

The Alex's trips to the County Ground usually see a high number of goals. Ok, maybe not all in the Swindon net, but still, a lot of goals. Since the 2 sides drew 0-0 in April 2009, there have been 11 meetings between them in Swindon. They have shared 44 goals, which simple maths tells you is an average of 4 per game. And given Swindon's home games have averaged 3.3 goals this season, we could be in for another high scoring affair this time around.

Improvement

The Alex's home form is fully back on track with 6 points from 2 games. However, they could do with getting a few more wins on the road if they want to stay 2nd and, dare I say it, haul in Walsall. They've won just 1 of their last 6 away games and whilst those games include trips to Walsall, Port Vale and MK Dons, they could do with a few more wins on the road.

These next 3 trips are especially important, where they play the sides currently in 22nd, 23rd and 21st. Because after that there are treks to Wimbledon(5th & midweek) and Gillingham, then visits to Chesterfield(10th), Salford(3rd), Notts County(6th) and Bradford(8th). If they can bring in 6-9 points from these next 3 away games, it takes the pressure right off their home games and will keep them well in the hunt for the top 3, if not more.

Ref Watch

Lee Swabey

Swabey will be remembered more by Wrexham fans than Crewe ones, given he was the ref who took charge of the 3-3 at the Racecourse last season, sending off Ryan Barnett and giving Crewe a penalty. He's done a number of Crewe games down the years, but I can't say he's stood out for anything egregious.

2024/25 Record: 15 games(8 League One, 5 League Two, 1 National League, 1 FA Cup), 66 yellows, 1 red

Last Game: Wigan Athletic 0-3 Birmingham City, EFL League One, 4th January 2025, 5 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 2-4-4, 19 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Swindon Town

Striker Harry Smith missed last week with a broken nose, although he looks set to return in a face mask for this one. How close he'll be to 100% though, who knows. Absent lately has been Harrison Minturn, Joel McGregor and Grant Hall, whilst George Cox has picked up a long term injury and won't feature. Ryan Delaney, Ollie Clarke and Nnamdi Ofoborh are also nursing knocks, but should be in the squad.

Crewe Alex

Conor Thomas is close to having the brace off his knee per Lee Bell, but he won't be fit of course. Kane Hemmings is getting closer and will return to training next week, but he too won't be in the squad. James Connolly was confirmed to have a hamstring tear and whilst Lee Bell put a timeframe of a few weeks, I'd be leaning closer to a month out for him. Hopefully Zac Williams is back from his illness and will return to the squad, otherwise they'll suddenly look a little short for CBs.

Team

For me, the team selections should be pretty simple. At the back, Lewis Billington earned the right to start again after his impressive display off the bench against Bromley. It would be easy to downplay that showing, but he came in cold when he wouldn't have expected to play and put up 2 assists. Benching him for this game would be incredibly harsh. He starts at RCB, with Knight-Lebel going centrally and Demetriou at LCB, as they finished last Sunday's game. Cooney and Conway of course start on the wings.

The midfield and front 2 that started against Bromley go again, because which of them honestly deserves to be dropped and who should come in to replace them? I hope Bell doesn't overthink things, get cute and go with his favourites in Tabiner and Tracey, as neither should be in the starting XI right now.

Once again though, picking a bench will be very tough. Williams will likely slot in there to replace the injured Connolly and you'll have Lunt, Finney, Tabiner Long, Tracey to fill out the subs, giving them plenty of options.

Score Prediction

Am I crazy for thinking they can pick up their 3rd straight win of 2025? The County Ground hasn't normally been a happy hunting ground for the Alex, although they are unbeaten in their last 2 visits and Swindon are struggling. I'm going to keep the optimism rolling and say the Alex will put on a defensive masterclass to keep Swindon out. Then a single moment of magic at the other end will give them the victory and keep them 2nd in the table.

Swindon Town 0-1 Crewe Alexandra