The Far Far Too Early 24-25 League Two Runners & Riders

I do one of these every summer, where I make an initial prediction about who I think will be in the promotion race, who will likely occupy the middle third and who will be struggling down at the bottom. I did one of these last season on my old website, which you can see here.

So, let's have another go at this shall we? I'm going to break down the teams into 3 categories: Strugglers(24th-17th), mid-table mediocrity(16th-9th) and promotion contenders(8th-1st). Again, where the teams appear doesn't reflect where they will finish in the table, just which section of the table. In brackets are where they finished last season.

Season of Struggle(24th-17th)

Harrogate Town(13th in L2)

They finished last season in their highest ever position, but they did so by winning most of their games 1-0. Their underlying stats were terrible(they sit 21st in the xG table for example) and I doubt they will go 8-8-6 on the road again, so regression looks likely. I might be wrong once again, but if 1 mid-table team looks likely to slide down the table in 24-25, it's Harrogate.

Morecambe(15th in L2)

They outstripped all expectations last season, pulling out some top draw loan signings and getting comfortably into mid-table. But they head into this summer in big trouble. No manager, 4 players tied down for next season, no support staff, no CEO. And no sign of any takeover imminent. If they don't find a buyer soon, then next season could be a disaster for them.

Bromley(3rd in the NL, promoted via the play-offs)

Bromley as a club have been on the rise for a while now. After play-off failures in 2021 and 2023, they managed to get over the hump and realise their dream of playing in the EFL. But now what? They are ripping out their artificial pitch and putting grass back down again, which will cause problems. And they will be trying to make the step up for the first time in their history, which can be a big challenge. They'll struggle.

Newport County(18th in L2)

It's good that their takeover has happened, but their slide towards the end of last season is a massive concern. They've lost a chunk of their firepower and if offers come in for Will Evans, will they be forced to cash in? Is Graham Coghlan under pressure? Will Huw Jenkins bring in his own man? What sort of budget will he provide? They are another team I worry about.

Fleetwood Town(22nd in L1, Relegated)

The start of their long overdue slide back to where they belong, in the depths of the non-leagues. They rose to prominence thanks to the fraud of Andrew Pilley and they as a club are reaping the whirlwind. They look in big trouble and I think everyone in the EFL is rooting for them to go down. Well, I know I am at least. They could do better than expected under Charlie Adam, so this is perhaps more in hope than expectation at this point.

Swindon Town(19th in L2)

Things aren't well at the County Ground. Do they ever not have off field dramas lingering over them? They had a dreadful season in 23-24 and I don't see it getting any better for them under Clem Morfuni. Unless he discovers some money down the back of the sofa or he sells the club, another bottom 8 finish awaits in my opinion.

Accrington Stanley(17th in L2)

Like a few clubs down here, I fear for Accrington. With the glue that held everything together in John Coleman gone, can his successor John Doolan continue to work miracles on a tiny budget? They won 2 of 8 games under his management, which doesn't bode well for next season.

Cheltenham Town(21st in L1, Relegated)

All those initial predictions putting them in the promotion mix look premature now. Darrell Clarke gone, a lot of their better players rejecting deals and heading out the club as well. And worst of all Gary Johnson in as DoF. There are some worrying things going on at Whaddon Road and as it stands, I can't see them doing much next season aside from struggle.

Mid-table Mediocrity(16th-9th)

Salford(20th in L2)

Salford have seen a lot of their better talent walk out the door, with Ibou Touray, Luke Bolton and now Elliot Watt and Matt Smith head for the door. But they still have a decent manager in Karl Robinson, even if he's one of the worst human beings. And their early rumoured moves to sign Cole Stockton show they might be back to their big spending ways.

Barrow(8th in L2)

So long Pete Wild, hopefully back to the conference where you belong. His shock departure will surely send Barrow tumbling back down the league, as he felt like the only reason they rose to relevance in the first place. Whoever comes in now has a massive job on his hands getting them back into promotion contention.

Crewe Alexandra(6th in L2)

If you want to know how Crewe will do next season, I genuinely couldn't tell you. The last 2 seasons, I thought I had a rough idea. They massively outperformed my expectations, but given the likely exodus of a lot of their senior players and the need to fill several big holes in their squad, I think they could finish anywhere in a range of about 15 spots.

Tranmere Rovers(16th in L2)

There is no question Nigel Adkins did a good job turning things around on the Wirral, but now the trick becomes creating a side that is capable of building on that. The loss of Rob Apter will hurt, so finding more creativity and goals will once again be an issue for them, for about the 5th season running. The questions over the clubs ownership will once again resurface should they start wobbling next season. The fan base expects a promotion charge. Can the management staff deliver?

Grimsby Town(21st in L2)

It took a while for Dave Artell to steady the ship and turn things around, but their end of season form should give every Mariners fan optimism. Like a few clubs in this middle pack, Artell now needs to find ways to sure up the defence, add more creativity to his midfield and more goals upfront, all whilst moving on from the mistakes made by Paul Hurst. I would expect the fans up there have modest expectations, but a top half finish will definitely be the minimum they demand I'd imagine.

Bradford City(9th in L2)

Is Graham Alexander the answer? Their slow and aging squad looks to need a bit overhaul, with more creativity and pace added. But how does that align with Alexander's pragmatic philosophy? Can he find a way to get them winning consistently at home? Can he fix the weakness that seem widespread in the squad? A play-off push is the minimum the fans will demand, but there are doubts over whether Alexander can deliver on that.

The signing of Antoni Sarcevic is a good start though. A couple more like him through the door and they'll be bumped up a category.

Colchester United(22nd in L2)

If ever Colchester were going to stop their slide down the league, 24-25 is that time. If the Cowley's can't get them turned around and pulling in the right direction, then I don't know who can. They will recruit smartly I suspect and make Colchester one of the nastiest teams in the league to play against, with a focus on tall, physical players in their summer recruitment.

I do back them to have a solid season for a change. I'm not sure where I'd put them yet, but I'd say well clear of the bottom 8, with room to move them into the top 8 depending on the calibre of players they recruit.

Walsall(11th in L2)

23-24 was better than 22-23 I suppose. But it was still a somewhat disappointing one as their wait for a top 7 finish extends to 8 years. They did take steps forward and now the pressure will be on to go a step further and make the top 7. To do that, they are going to need to find a striker who won't get poached away mid-season after his loan doesn't get extended, as has happened with Danny Johnson and Freddie Draper in back to back seasons. The pressure will be on for Mat Sadler you'd imagine.

Promotion Contenders(8th-1st)

Port Vale(23rd in L1, Relegated)

There are big question marks over the Vale heading into next season. They need a big clear out, but with so few players released, how can they properly rebuild without paying off a lot of contracts? There will be hope their better players cope more easily with L2, but there are also question marks over Darren Moore, so they need a strong summer and fast start to avoid things turning toxic. Signing Ronan Curtis is a good start, but they need massive improvements in all areas. I'm not sure I believe in them being in here just yet, but I couldn't find a better candidate.

Notts County(14th in L2)

I had to put someone here even though I have serious question marks over Maynard's long term viability as manager and they could be about to lose both Jodi Jones and Macauley Langstaff, who have the bulk of their goals and assists. They'll have money to spend, but finding the right players won't be easy given their spotty record in the last couple of windows. I expect they'll be in the top half, but even though I have them as promotion contenders, I'm not totally convinced.

Doncaster(5th in L2)

They are carrying all the momentum into next season. Yes, they will be disappointed with the fact they missed out on promotion, but they will feel full of confidence heading into 24-25 that they've finally turned a corner and they can start to consider themselves top 3 or even title contenders. With some smart additions, they'll be right up there for sure.

AFC Wimbledon(10th in L2)

Wimbledon are another side I'm not sure about. They, like Walsall, took steps forward, but still fell short of the top 7. So now the expectation will be to build on that and go one further. Can Jackson and his management team handle that pressure and find the missing pieces they need?

Gillingham(12th in L2)

Funny what difference a few weeks can make can't it? After realising their mistake in hiring Stephen Clemence, they rectified that and dumped him, bringing former Cambridge boss Mark Bonner. They have ways to go to convince me they can get into the top 7, but signing Elliott Nevitt is a good way to start.

MK Dons(4th in L2)

They set themselves back in 23-24 with the wrong appointment in Graham Alexander. They eventually rectified their mistake and brought in Mike Williamson, who was always a much better fit for their preferred style of play. He turned things around and got them moving in the right direction. Keeping their strong core will be important, especially young striker Max Dean. With a bit of fine tuning, most notably in defence, they'll be a top 3 candidate for sure.

Chesterfield(1st in NL, Promoted)

There are plenty of well funded clubs and Chesterfield, freshly back from a 6 year stay in the National League, will be one of them. The squad they have assembled is for the most part already EFL calibre. Will Grigg, Ryan Colclough, Tom Naylor, Michael Jacobs and the signing of Paddy Madden. They definitely need work in defence, as we saw how Wrexham and Notts County struggled in that area initially. But I imagine they'll be aiming, like Wrexham, for back to back promotions and will spend accordingly.

Carlisle United(24th in L1, Relegated)

After a horrendous L1 season and instant relegation, Paul Simpson, probably for the first time since returning to his hometown club, has pressure on him. He will be expected to rebuild and quickly, especially with new wealthy owners who are likely to back him with sizeable transfer funds. Can he mount a promotion push straight away? I'll say yes, but with him still talking about moving on under contract players, he has a massive job turning them around.

Early Conclusion

I said last season League Two looked stronger than it had done in a while. In the end, that wasn't true, as I felt everyone from 5th downwards had huge flaws and only the top 4 really showed their quality. Well, next season I think the league looks horrendously weak. I'm not convinced by many in the top and middle 3rd. You could easily swap most of those around. It's wide open and I think a fair chunk of the league will be expecting a play-off push.

And at the bottom, there are a number of clubs I look at and see them struggling. Morecambe, Swindon, Fleetwood and Accy have off field issues with their owners which could impact them. But predicting a clear cut bottom 2 is tough.

The league looks about as wide open as it ever has done, with anyone of 5 teams capable of winning the title, 10-15 clubs making the play-offs and 6 teams who could go down. Doing table predictions for next season has the potential to go very wrong.