Walsall v Crewe Alex 25/26 Preview - Change the Narrative

I know I'm a broken record for bringing it up every year. But because the story is the same every year, how can I not? So guess what, in a tale as old as time, the Alex are awful on Boxing Day. Every season, without fail. Last season probably encapsulated that more than ever. They went 1-0 up against Cheltenham and seemed to be in a good place to win the game. But a bizarre tactical switch led to things falling apart and them losing 2-1. That meant they slipped to 5-4-11 in their last 20 Boxing Day games. Can they reverse that trend in this game? Here is my preview of their visit to the midlands:

Same Again

I mentioned a few weeks ago against Newport how the fixture computer had thrown up some strange quirks and scheduling. Well how about this? In 23-24, they faced Walsall away on Boxing Day, before travelling to Newport for a midweek game on December 29th. 2 seasons on and they have a Boxing Day trip to Walsall followed by a visit to Newport on December 29th. How does that happen exactly?

Either way, I hope these 2 fixtures yeild more points than the 2 in 23-24 did, as they lost 2-0 in this game and then only managed a 1-1 draw at Rodney Parade. 1, 2 or even 5 more points would be lovely.

Change the Narrative

I mentioned that the Alex are poor on Boxing Day. Well, they are usually poor on the opening day, but bucked that trend this season by beating Salford back in August. They never win at Tranmere, but did this season. Do these results signal a change in their fortunes on certain dates or in certain fixtures such as this one? I sure hope so, as watching them flop on the big occasions every year gets tiring. Going home with a win in this fixture would be make a nice change.

Slipping?

Are the Alex heading to the Bescot at a good time? Walsall have won just one of their last 4 outings there, so maybe. Their 1 win was over fellow high flyers Bromley, so they are clearly still a good team, but they have dropped games against Barrow, Colchester and Shrewsbury since Mid-October. This shows that perhaps there is a vulnerability to them at the moment at home and hopefully the Alex can capitalise on that.

Functional but not fantastic

Walsall might be top of the tree, but they are no star performers. The underlying stats don't suggest they are the best team in the league. They are:

24th in average possession

12th in goals scored

15th in xG

12th in shots on target

9th in big chances

23rd in accurate passes

17th in touches in the opposition box

Where they have been effective is in set pieces and what they do with the little possession they have. But here's the funny thing. In games where they average 38% possession or more, they are 3-2-4. In games where they average 37% of less, they are 8-2-1. As much as I hate to say it, the Alex might be well advised to concede possession to Walsall and look to hit them on the break, just as Walsall like to do to their opponents. The old 'uno reverse' card could be a good one to pull at this time.

Late Drama

I stopped making this point in the last few trips to Walsall, but given last seasons events, it's time to bring it back. There is quite often late drama at the Bescot between these 2 sides. Let's look at the record:

An 85th minute equaliser from Steve Foster gets the Alex a 1-1 draw in 2004.

A 90th minute equaliser from Ian Roper gives Walsall a point in 2008.

A 90th minute equaliser from Stephen Schumacher gives the Alex a 1-1 draw in 2009.

A 90th minute equaliser from Chuks Aneke gives the Alex a 2-2 draw in 2012.

A 90th minute Mark Ellis own goal gives Walsall a 1-1 draw in 2014.

An 84th minute Adam Dugdale goal gives the Alex a 1-0 win in 2014.

An 85th minute Nathan Lowe equaliser gives Walsall a 1-1 draw in 2024.

That's late result swinging goals in 7 of the last 11 games between the 2 at this ground, which is a lot. Will we have another notable late event this time to add to the above list?

Ref Watch

Simon Mather

The experienced Mather is in charge for this game and he's another that I don't remember being particularly bad in previous fixtures. So here's hoping I have the same feelings come 5pm on Friday.

2025-26 Record: 17 games(7 League One, 5 League Two, 3 EFL Cup, 1 National League, 1 FA Cup), 56 yellows

Last Game: Barnsley 3-2 Leyton Orient, 13th December 2025, EFL League One, 4 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 2-2-2, 10 yellows

Injuries/Absences

Walsall

The Saddlers will be without Mason Hancock, Kemar Roofe and Harrison Burke, but Aaron Pressley is back fit after a hamstring injury.

Crewe Alex

Bell has hinted at 1-2 from Bogle, Holicek, Demetriou and Thomas being back in the fold, but we don't know who at this stage. Even if Bogle and Holicek are fit, neither will start at this point you'd have though. Thibaut starts the first of his 3 match ban assuming the possible appeal didn't happen or wasn't successful. Lankester and Golding are further away from returns, so won't be in contention.

Team

Given we don't know who might be back fit, it's hard to say who'll be playing where at this stage, but we'll have a stab at it. Assuming the worst case scenario and no players make it back who are capable of starting(i.e Bogle or Holicek), what do they do for this game I wonder?

Well, they'll have to continue with the same back 4, which fills me with concern. I think there is a decision to be made in goal after Waller's mixed game last Friday. In midfield it'll have to be Lunt and Sanders again, as I don't think I want to see Powell start at this point.

Upfront things will have to into a blender though, as they are suddenly extremely light for options. March probably goes back upfront and Rankine starts on the LW, but who slots into the number 10 role? Does Moult start upfront with March in behind? You might not have any choice at this point.

Of course, if Thomas or Demetriou are fit, that changes everything. Thomas if fit goes into midfield and it pushes Lunt back into the number 10 spot, with March going back up top. Demetriou being fit of course pushes Billington back to RB and frees up Agius to either drop to the bench or resume his spot on the LW. Even 1 of them being fit to start would be a huge boost.

Score Prediction

I want to take some optimism into this game. After all, they've only lost one of their last 8 and that was in the last minute at Cambridge. But unless I see Demetriou's name on the team sheet at 1:45pm on Friday, I won't feel very confident. As it is, with the amount of injuries and absences they currently have, I can't look past a defeat at this point.

Walsall 2-0 Crewe Alexandra