What's Behind Crewe Alex's Home Struggles?

The 22-23 season was a tough one for Crewe Alex. They struggled for most of the campaign as they sought to rebuild after a terrible relegation from League One in 21-22. Their home record in particular was poor. They were 4-3-4 at Gresty Road by the turn of the year.

But they did manage to corral some results together and finished the season 7-3-2 to give them an overall record of 11-6-6, with 32 goals and 26 conceded. They had lost just 3 games by 2 or more goals. Everything was set up for them to build on that good run of form as they looked to improve this season.

Early Success, but...

And in the early stages of this season, it looked like they were improving. They were 5-2-0 heading into a game against promotion contenders Stockport in late October. However, that doesn't tell the full story. What this overlooks is the fact that in most of those performances, they hadn't actually played that well. They fell behind 2-0 against Mansfield on the opening day. They did the same against Walsall in game 3.

Even in the wins there was uncertainty. Against Newport, they powered away with a dominant 2nd half, but the first half was very shaky. They enjoyed a good opening 10 minutes against Colchester, but did very little in the remaining 80 and were a tad fortunate to win that game. Against Gillingham, they were beaten in virtually every statistical category. Against Tranmere, the Alex went up 2-0 early in the 2nd half as Tranmere had their keeper sent off. But they failed to build on that and whilst the win was comfortable, it wasn't done in any particular style, with Tranmere enjoying the better of the chances even with 10 men if we're being honest.

Only against MK Dons did they look decent. In that game, they fell behind early, but fought back to take control and run out worthy winners. But that was about it. Look at some of the stats if you don't believe me. In those first 7 games, the opposition had more shots in 5 of them. The Alex had a better xG in 3 of the 7 and one of those was because they had a penalty against Colchester. Remove that and they'd have lost that stat match up as well. The results were papering over the cracks in already rocky foundations.

Sliding since October

The first major concern was how flat and limp they came out against Stockport. They barely laid a glove on County, which had its mitigating circumstances in the fact they had no Joel Tabiner and lost Jack Powell midway through to a season ending ACL tear. But that game saw them lose their long unbeaten run at home and in truth, they never really recovered from it.

They scraped past Notts County with a late penalty. They needed 3 goals from defenders to see off an at the time woeful Doncaster team, including another late winner. Accrington dominated them for most of the 2nd half despite them being badly understrength. Yes, Harvey Davies takes blame for letting the 2-1 lead slip, but in truth, Accrington deserved exactly what they got. Barrow cruised to a win, although that was forgivable. Bradford, Swindon and Salford were slogs, even despite of 2 wins from 3. Crawley, Harrogate, Sutton, Wimbledon. All average at best for large chunks of those games.

The Morecambe collapse. The battering by Forest Green and Grimsby. It's massively concerning to see just how poor they've been on the whole this season at home, even whilst getting results. For me, that's been the issue. The results have papered over the cracks and hidden the fact that even from the opening day, there have never been any solid home foundations laid.

It's been getting results through fight, determination and a slice of luck through red cards, fluke goals, penalties etc. Rather than winning through sound process. A 6-3-6 record in their last 15 games is not the form of a promotion contender. That's 1.4 PPG, which across a full campaign would 32, only good enough for the 15th-18th range this season.

Heck, go back and rank your top 10 league performances by the Alex this season. For me, they would be Stockport(A), Mansfield(A), Barrow(A) and Notts County(A) in the top 4. Crawley(A), MK Dons(H) and FGR(A) would also be in there. Notice how few home performances crop up? Because as I alluded to earlier, I can only really name 2, maybe 3 at a push, good all round home performances.

The stats

The stats don't paint a pretty picture. Bare in mind, these are home stats from games the Alex, as a promotion contender, should by right be favoured in. All these are averages:

Stats	Crewe	Opposition
Possession	54%	46%
Shots on Target	3.8	4.5
Shots	12	13.6
Corners	5.9	4.9
xG Total	1.24	1.25
xG Open Play	0.71	1.11
Passes	433	407
Passing Success %	74	72
Leading 2+ goals	6	6
Scored First	11	10
1st Half Goals	16	15
2nd Half Goals	19	17

Then let's look at some more closely. Ok, they've done better in some categories, but the advantage in most is marginal. They control possession and make more passes than the opposition, but for me, the concerning ones are the shots and xG stats. They have been heavily outchanced, which matches the eye test. They've had the same number of multi goal leads for them as they've had against them.

They are joint 11th for goals scored, but joint 8th for most goals conceded when compared to the rest of the league. They have the 8th best overall home record in the division with 1 game to go. They have the 14th best GD, at only +3. The eye test, the stats test. They show this side has been a mid-table/top half team this season at home and nowhere close to promotion contender worthy.

Why is it happening?

I think the reasons why this has happened are many. First, I think the Alex's playing style has counted against them. Teams almost always come and play with a high press due to the Alex's passing approach. But where they've fallen down is not just in that they've not been able to handle that approach with their own play, but in the fact they've not had a consistent plan B to counteract it. They've tried set pieces, they've tried the long ball, they've tried a few other things, but none of it has worked.

Yes, the injuries in midfield have directly affected them at home, but as I laid above in the games against Mansfield, Walsall, Gillingham and Tranmere, they were losing the stats battles and not showing anywhere near enough control in games. This is when players were fit and fresh, the pitch in good condition and the weather mostly calm.

2nd, because they have been in the top 7 all season, I think it's painted a target on their back. Teams have come to them knowing in order to get a result, they have raised their games. Yes, plenty of that is the Alex not doing well in their own processes, but I'm struggling to think of an opposition team who came and looked shambolic.

So many teams seem to have reserved their best away performances of the season for their trip to Gresty Road. See FGR and Grimsby as 2 examples. Walsall, Colchester, Accrington, Bradford, Salford. All teams with middling or worse away records, yet all came and looked pretty decent against the Alex.

Another issue is teams this season have collectively been better away from home. The average away points across the league has risen from 23.5 last season to 25.5 this season, with there also being a wider spread of points. 8 teams last season recorded less than 5 away wins. This season it's 3.

Conclusion

For me, the home form across the whole season and leading into next season is worrying. I am yet to see any clear game plan for how Lee Bell wants to play at home and that was even with players fit in the opening 2 months of the season. Upgrading and keeping their midfield fit will be the first thing they need to do. But understanding how to combat and overcome teams that come with a high press style is going to be paramount.

Defending better will also be important, given they've been outshot in 14 of their 22 home games and been outshot on target in 13. Whether that comes from a better defensive shape, better defenders or a better overall game plan, I don't know, but it needs to improve in 24-25.