Why not getting promoted could be a blessing for Crewe Alexandra

So, the season is over. And for Crewe Alex, they came up just short in their goal for promotion, reaching Wembley but falling short at Wembley. 23-24 was a season full of great memories. From late comebacks to an away record for the ages, they surprised everyone by sitting in the top 7 for most of the season, then shocked everyone again by rising from the dead to beat Doncaster and make it to Wembley.

Their rise was stopped at the final hurdle by an even bigger fairytale story in Crawley, who comfortably beat them to secure L1 football for next season. But I think deep down, not going up to L1 could be the best thing for the Alex long term. Let me explain:

Promoted Too Soon

Had the Alex been promoted to L1, yes they would have had a lot of fun. There are some really big clubs in that league in 24-25 and some exciting trips to be had. But, ask Carlisle if being in that league this season was enjoyable for them when they were losing every week?

In 22-23, they were the classic case of dramatically overachieving compared to what was expected of them. They managed to get themselves into the play-offs and won at Wembley, which I'm sure was a sweet day. But very quickly the magic dissipated. Stars left, sub standard replacements were brought in and things fell apart. Even an American led takeover did little to improve the general mood around the club. A lot of what Carlisle had last season is very similar to what the Alex have this season.

Carlisle were promoted too soon. It is a thing. I think had the Alex been promoted, they could have had a campaign in 24-25 that resembles the one Carlisle had in 23-24.

Squad

Let's look at why it could be a good thing for the squad. First the academy youngsters. Billington and Booth had half a season as their starters at RB and GK. Tabiner has missed 4 months injured and is struggling to find his place in the team. Williams, Finney, Lunt and Holicek also have had injury disrupted seasons, denying them precious development time. Taking those players into L1 after not having complete seasons always felt like a big worry.

Think back to 12-13, when they had a fit and firing Luke Murphy to build around. Or 20-21, when they had Ng, Kirk, Pickering and Lowery all having enjoyed full seasons in 19-20. They went into those seasons prepared. I don't think you could say that about this group.

Then lets look at the older players. I love Mickey Demetriou and I think Jack Powell could have been a big player for the club had he not had his ACL injury. Elliott Nevitt has been excellent as well. But they are all career L2 players. Do they handle the step up for the first time in their careers? Maybe.

But outside of them? Ryan Cooney, Conor Thomas and Shilow Tracey in L1? Hard pass. CBR? Doubtful. Chris Long can't stay fit. You can be happy about having certain players when you remain in L2, but knowingly admit they wouldn't be good enough in L1. We saw that with Lee Bell and Dave Artell, who were both released following promotion in 11-12. We saw that in the likes of Byron Moore and Adam Dugdale. I would not have been confident in this squad, even with changes and additions, to compete in L1 next season.

And that's not factoring the reality that a lot of players are free agents. Long, CBR, Nevitt, Offord, Kirk. That's a lot of quality and experience potentially walking out the door in the coming weeks. If they all leave, it will leave the management with big holes to fill. Those holes will be much easier to fill on a mid-table sized L2 budget than a bottom 4 sized L1 one.

Seeing those players leave and taking up a group that at it's core would contain players who've played half a season of L2 football and several who I don't think are capable of making the step up and it would have made for a scary proposition. Better to spend another season getting better in L2 I think.

The Management

If we want to be fully honest as well, I'm not sure the management are ready for the step up either. They got a lot right this season, as evidenced by the fact the team were in the top 7 pretty much all season and of course, them making the play-off final. But they've made plenty of mistakes.

The signings of Davies, Cooney and Tracey for me, were poor ones on the whole. Aaron Rowe and Lewis Leigh could maybe be added to that list. Yes, they got a lot right in Demetriou, Powell, White and potentially Turns. But as time goes by, their success rate in terms of recruitment still feels very hit and miss.

Then we come to how they set out their squad. There have been lots of mistakes in terms of their starting XIs and their subs. Again, they've got lots correct. But the mistakes can't be ignored.

They need more time to find a settled team, to get a consistent starting XI and formation. And most of all, they need to get back to their identity, which is a passing team. Again, none of this means I think they did a bad job. They did a good one. But they will know deep down that improvement is needed going forward and that starts internally.

A Blessing

I'm sure Charles Grant and the board will be bitterly disappointed to not be going up. The finances of the club would have taken a real jump and instead they'll have to, as a board, absorb more substantial losses in order to break even. It's not good for the club in terms of allowing their youngsters to develop at a higher level and potentially be sold for money. I get all that.

But I think the benefits are found elsewhere. When was the last time we went into a season truly believing the Alex would be a promotion contender? I remember a few brief hopes in 10-11, but there were none in 11-12. I think the top half was seen as a good achievement in 19-20, but not the top 7. This season nobody expected them to be as good as they were.

I don't know about anyone else, but I want just 1 summer where I feel positive about my team in terms of them finishing high in a table. As in, top half or even top 7 positive. I want a summer to enjoy the possibility of them mounting a promotion run for 1 pre-season. Being consistently good in L2 is not a terrible thing. Watching consistently winning football for multiple seasons is not a bad thing.

Wide Open

League Two next season looks wide open. Chesterfield are big spenders, MK Dons and Donny will bounce back from their play-off defeats. You'd look at the usual suspects like Gillingham, Bradford, Tranmere and Notts County to finally get their acts together. But at this stage, I'd say the Alex's chances of promotion are far greater next season than they were this season with the likes of Mansfield, Stockport and Wrexham now gone.

Conclusion

Again, yes it wouldn't be great from a financial point of view. But being a consistent top 7 chaser helps grow a fan base, much better than 1 good season in L2, 1 mid-table L1 finish and then inevitable relegation scraps before dropping back to L2 and struggling to rebuild back at that level. As has happened twice before.

I want to see this team break that cycle. Finding a way to get promoted and be consistently competitive in L1 is always the goal. But I don't think they are there yet. I don't think the squad is there yet. Nor do I think the management or recruitment teams are there yet. They can be, but it's just too soon for them.

Therefore, I think them staying in League Two for another season is a good thing. There are no guarantees and its not a certain thing that they will get promoted next season, or even finish in the top 7. But with a strong core, a management group that is hopefully a year wiser and a group that hopefully doesn't get injured as much, then I think we can go into 24-25 with a real sense of positivity that the club is moving in the right direction and that L1 isn't far away.