Will Crewe Alex make the play-offs this season?

We are entering the final third of the season. 30 games have been played, 65.2% of the season is done. The transfer window is shut, so whatever teams have available to them has to get them through the home stretch. And for Crewe Alex, a top 7 spot is now becoming a more and more realistic possibility. But I'm sure I'm not alone in running through their possible paths to a top 7 finish. I'm sure I'm not the only one who is looking at the other teams run-ins, doing the maths, going through the reasons why they will or won't make the play-offs. So, I decided to plot all those reasons down and see what conclusion I could come to about whether Crewe Alex will make the play-offs in 23-24:

Reasons why they won't

Injuries

The first scenario that stops them in their tracks is if injuries flare up. They are already down 3 players long term in Jack Powell, Owen Lunt and it seems Zac Williams. If they lose a couple more for weeks or even months, they could be in trouble. Chris Long and Courtney Baker-Richardson didn't suddenly become more durable and both are approaching their career highs for starts and appearances. If they drop, the Alex are in trouble, not to mention they are in trouble if they lose Mickey Demetriou or Luke Offord for any period of time.

Attacking troubles

Even with those players fit, the Alex have been struggling going forward for a while now. They've scored 21 goals in their last 16 games, after scoring 34 goals in the first 14 games. The reason why is obvious . They are 9th in xG for L2 and have outperformed their xG by almost 13 goals. They rank 17th for shots on target per game. Even during their red hot scoring run at the start of the season, they were over performing the data and they have now come back down to earth. In simple terms, they don't create enough chances and that is an issue unless they can find a new level in attack.

Tough away schedule

They have to play 3 of the current top 7 away from home. They also have to visit Doncaster, Gillingham, Accrington and Colchester on the road, places where they often struggle to win. Yes, they have just played Mansfield, Barrow and Tranmere and emerged with 7 points from 9. But you're still never 100% confident they've figured it out on the road, especially not at grounds where they've not won since 2002(Stockport), 1997(Notts), 2011(Accy), 2014(Gills), 2015(Col U).

Home struggles

it sounds crazy to say that given they've got a 9-3-3 record at home, but scratch deeper and you'll see why I say this. They have got a better xG than their opponent in just 6 of their 15 home games. 6! They've been outshot in 11 of them. Find me a 60-90 minute performance at home and outside of a couple of examples, I think you're struggling. They don't maintain control in games at home, especially when leading. They get results, but I don't feel like they go through a solid process each week to do so. Can their good fortune hold up?

Reasons they will

Resilience

They might not stack up to other teams stats wise in almost every major category. But what they lack in perhaps talent, they make up for in resilience. They never give up and never stop working. I can count on one hand the amount of times they've gone into the latter stages of a game looking thoroughly beaten. It happened frequently in 22-23.

They've rescued 20 points from losing positions, the most in League Two. Sometimes hard work and mental toughness can push you past teams even when the stats say you shouldn't be scoring or winning as often as you are. That I feel is the story of this Crewe Alex team. The stats don't suggest they are top 7 material, but they've grafted their asses off to get into this position and are there on merit.

Improving Squad

Whilst we pray and hope that the likes of Long, CBR and other key players stay fit, the squad looks in decent shape physically. Joel Tabiner and Charlie Finney are due back imminently. It's a shame Powell, Lunt and Williams remain out long term, but aside from them, there is a lot to like about the squad as is built. Lewis Billington has emerged as a solid RB option. Luke Offord in midfield has been a revelation. The early looks at Ed Turns and the other new January signings seem positive. They have goals and creativity from all angles and look relatively solid at the back of late.

They have depth, with more on the way as mentioned. Charlie Kirk, once up to speed, could be a game changer in attack. As the new boys settle and they start to work out how to maximise all their options, then I've no doubt they will hit form soon enough. Not that they are out of form at the moment of course.

Weak challenging field

Look at the teams below the Alex and you will see sides laced with flaws too. MK Dons have issues on the road and lack goals with Max Dean out long term, Jonathon Leko out for the season and Mo Eisa away on loan. Their only fit experienced striker is Ellis Harrison. Notts County are trying to work out their identity under new boss Stuart Maynard and they also have problems picking up points away from home.

Outside the top 7, if the Alex are above where the stats say they should be, then Harrogate are even more so. They are winning games through some sort of monkey paw voodoo black magic at the moment. Wimbledon have lost their focal point and top scorer in Ali Al Hamadi and haven't strung together 2 wins since November.

Gillingham couldn't score in a brothel and as for the rest of the league, inconsistent sums them up. The chasing pack looks weak, so the Alex could find that they don't need to be at their absolute best to get the points they need and still finish in the top 7.

Their Run In

I know I said above that their away run in looks tough, and it does. But after February in their final 12 games, only 1 of them is against a side currently in the top 7. 8 of the final 12 will be against sides in the bottom half. Ok, that can come with challenges of its own, but the fact is, their final 10-12 games look very favourable.

That is especially true at home. Yes, I said above that they struggle a bit to impose themselves in home games and win on moments, rather than solid all round play. But between now and the end of the season, they only play 1 top 7 side at home. They have 5 home games against bottom half sides, who they are currently 4-1-1 against. Pick up 3-4 wins from that lot and that is another 12-14 points, which would take them to within touching distance of 70 points.

Maths

And speaking of 70 points, the biggest thing in their favour is maths. They don't need to aim for 70 or 75 points, they simply need to aim for 1 point more than the side in 8th are expected to get. At the moment, the side in 8th, Harrogate, are projected to get 70 points. So that's what the Alex need. And with 51 points, they need another 19 to get there. 5 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats from their final 16 games gets them there. That's more than possible.

But it's not just the maths they need that works in their favour, it's the maths that the opposition need as well. The teams below them would all need to have storming ends to the season and outperform the Alex by quite a big margin. If the Alex need 19 points to hit 70, Harrogate need 26 and have 1 more game to get it. That's tough, as it would require them to finish something like 7-5-5, a far better run of form. And that's just to match the Alex, who hold a better GD.

Or, let's aim higher. 75 points guarantees you a play-off spot in most seasons. The Alex need 1.5 points per game to get there. Notts County and Harrogate would need 1.82. Wimbledon would need 1.88. That would take some sort of form from the teams below them and some sort of collapse by them for that to happen. And with every win by them or dropped result by the chasing pack, the maths works even more in their favour.

Conclusion

So, at the end of all that, do I think the Alex make the play-offs? Yes I do. I don't foresee a total collapse in their form. They'll have some sticky patches, but they'll also be able to rattle off a few wins along the way, given their favourable schedule from the start of March onwards. They have issues upfront, but they are looking more solid at the back. And most importantly of all, I just don't see any of the chasing pack from 8th downwards, with all their respective flaws and issues, overtaking the Alex come the end of the season.

I'm sure it'll be tight and it'll go down to the wire to secure one of those top 7 spots. It's going to be 16 games of worry, stress and long evenings studying the league table and trying to work out all the various permutations. But I think they crack 70 points and I think they bag a top 7 spot, probably with a couple of games to spare.