Cheltenham Town v Crewe Alex 24-25 Preview - Su Counter, Mi Counter

It's not relevant to the game, but I love Whaddon Road. Nestled in amongst the Cheltenham suburbs, it's a ground that suits a team of the Robins size. It has as a unique and cozy feel, the stands are right on top of the pitch with uninterrupted views(unlike some of the recent grounds I've visited) of both of the pitch and the Cotswolds. I'm looking forward to this game, although the omens don't look good for them stretching their unbeaten league run to 13 games. Here's my preview of their trip south as I explain why:

Counter v Counter

It's going to be interesting to see how both teams set up. Because both seem to focus on a counter attacking style, regardless of whether they are home or away. Cheltenham are averaging 47.4% possession across their 11 home games so far, whilst the Alex are averaging 50.1% away from home, although that drops to 48.4% when you remove the Port Vale game where they played 10 men for 45 minutes.

With both teams happy to allow the opposition to dominate the ball and focus on quick counter attacks, this could be a frantic game with possession changing hands very quickly.

Boxing Day Ghosts

It seems like no matter what team the Alex put out on Boxing Day each season, they always struggle. Since 2005, they are 3-5-8 in fixtures on this date. In their last 6, they are 0-1-5 with only 2 goals scored. Their last 2 were particular low points, where they went to local(ish) grounds in Stockport and Walsall, lost 2-0 on both occasions and barely laid a glove on the opposition attack wise.

The Alex are, in a sense, the Scrooge character in a Christmas Carol. The only difference between them and the Dickens character is they hold their misery until Boxing Day, whilst Scrooge was the opposite and did it before Christmas. Let's hope the ghosts of their previous Boxing Day no shows don't come back to haunt them once again.

Improving

Standing in their way though is a Cheltenham side that slowly seems to be getting it's act together, much like Colchester. After wholesale changes in the summer player wise and what I think was a downgrade in the dugout in losing Darrell Clarke and hiring Michael Flynn, they've actually started to look a better side of late.

After losing 7 of their first 11 games, they've now lost just 1 of their last 10 games. Their recent home form has also been impressive, with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5. 2 of those draws should have been wins, but late equalisers scored by Bromley and Port Vale denied them that.

In Ethon Archer, Arkell Jude-Boyd, George Miller and Luke Young amongst others, they have a solid blend of youth and experience, of pace, skill and technical ability. Do they make a push for the top 7 in 2025? I'm not sure. But they'll be a tricky customer for the Alex for sure.

Strong Attack(?), Weak Defence(!)

Crewe Alex games have seen the joint 2nd lowest goals this season with just 40. Cheltenham have seen the 4th most with 59. But whilst you might look at their attack and think it's dangerous, that feels like a generous description. They are 21st for xG with 18.6 and have the 2nd biggest disparity for goals scored compared to the xG they've created at 10.4, with only Chesterfield overperforming by more. So how they've scored 29 is a bit baffling.

At the other end though, they have conceded 30 goals and that feels more accurate to their performances defensively. They've conceded the 9th most xG against and are 6th in both shots and shots on target against. They've been blanked just twice and have kept just 4 clean sheets, whilst the Alex have been blanked 4 times and kept 9 clean sheets. So, will the Alex's defensive solidity lead to a tight low scoring game, or will the Robin's attack minded style win out?

Ref Watch

Alan Young

Young is forever going to be known as the George Ray against Barrow referee for how laughably bad that decision was. However, the more interesting fact about him is, this is the 2nd Crewe game he's done this season. His first? Their 2-1 defeat at Newport. Which was also the last time they lost a league game. Um....

2024/25 Record: 12 Games(3 League One, 3 League Two, 4 National League, 1 FA Cup, 1 EFL Trophy), 62 yellows, 1 red

Last Game: Huddersfield Town 2-2 Lincoln City, EFL League One, Saturday 14th December 2024, 3 yellows

Crewe Alex Record: 1-0-4, 10 yellows, 1 red

Injuries/Absences

Cheltenham Town

CB Scot Bennett is apparently back in contention after being close to a return against Gillingham. They seem incredibly healthy, with none of their top appearance makers appearing to be absent.

Crewe Alex

Fingers crossed they haven't picked up any new issues and the injury list remains just Hemmings, Thomas and Robinson. That should allow Bell some welcome selection headaches.

Team

Squad rotation will become a thing they have to consider. But what changes do they go for? Some will argue for Bogle and Tracey up top and Lankester in behind, but I'm not sure that would work, as it would leave them light in midfield and I don't think front trio works. Cheltenham are one of the worst possession teams in the league, so will setting up for the counter attack be a good idea?

Personally, Bogle and Lankester start together upfront, with Lankester dropping deeper on occasion to pick up the ball and make things happen. I'm once again calling for changes in midfield, as it just isn't working on a consistent basis. And yes, it's Joel Tabiner who gets the chop. 1 goal/assist every 5 games isn't enough given he's supposed to be one of their more creative players, so I'm dropping him for Powell once again and going with Jack, Holicek and Sanders.

The back 5 stays the same, but goodness me tell Cooney and Conway to kick on and play as wing backs please. The bench once again has a wealth of options to choose from.

Score Prediction

Sorry, but given the omens about the Alex's annual Boxing Day no shows and who the ref is, I'm in full pessimism mode at this point. I'm predicting a defeat and I fully hope to be proven wrong. I can see Cheltenham snatching a couple of goals and despite the Alex's best efforts, they'll come up short and see their unbeaten run come to an end.

Cheltenham Town 2-1 Crewe Alexandra